The New York Times:

According to unofficial results, Democrats captured 32 out of the 62 seats in the Senate. The shift marks the end of an era for New York Republicans, whose control of the Senate had come to depend on a bloc of senators, some in their 70s and 80s, who had put off retirement to help preserve the party’s majority.

On Long Island, Senator Caesar Trunzo, 82, who has held office since Richard Nixon was president, lost by 17 percentage points to a Democrat, Brian X. Foley, the son of a candidate whom Mr. Trunzo beat in the early 1980s. [...]

One of Mr. Trunzo’s colleagues, Senator Serphin R. Maltese of Queens, 75, conceded defeat to Joseph P. Addabbo Jr., 44, a Democratic city councilman, in one of the most expensive and contentious state legislative races this year.

That's it: we have the majority. Now we can get to work changing this state: enact the Brennan Center Reforms, enact meaningful tax relief, bring transparency to public authorities, and finally, after forty years of obstructionism, move forward as one people.

Of course, there's always a fly in the ointment. That fly is usually one Ruben Diaz, the Bronx Drama Queen, who is, as he ever does, threatening to bolt the caucus in what amounts to a bid for attention.

I wouldn't be all that worried about that possibility. Diaz and his four companions all represent safe Democratic districts, and can be primaried. Which, my guess would be, if they're disloyal, they will be.

The Siena Research Institute just released its final pre-election polling (.pdf) in several key races.

In SD-3, Brian Foley leads Caesar Trunzo 56% to 34%, a lead of twenty-two points in a district evenly divided, at 45% each, between Obama and McCain. That's extraordinary, and a testament to the strong campaign Foley has been running.

In Erie County's SD-58, Democrat Bill Stachowski reversed a poll deficit and now leads his corrupt opponent, Dennis Delano, by four points, 47% to 43%. Being under 50% is generally taken to signal some danger to incumbents, but the trend is going well for him.

In SD-61, republican Ranzenhffer leads Democrat Joe Mesi by five points, 47% to 42%. reversing an earlier Mesi lead. However, in a Democratic year, with our huge GOTV advantages, that deficit can be made up.

In SD-48, Senator Darrel Aubertine is crushing some guy, 49% to 38%. Another half million dollars down the drain for our friends at the SRCC.

IN SD-15, Joe Addabbo narrowly leads incumbent wingnut Serf Maltese by two points, 45% to 43%. This bears repeating: an incumbent legislator who's polling that far below 50% two days before the election needs to start thinking about other employment.

The most disappointing result is that from the Hannon-McElroy race. Kristen McElroy has all the makings of a Jeffersonian citizen-lawmaker; she's a mother of three, a practicing attorney, and just an all-around awesome person. Kemp Hannon is, in a caucus filled with nasty sons-of-bitches, one of the worst. And yet, he leads McElroy 56% to 30%. But don't treat this result as indicative of Hannon's strength; McElroy's combined 23% favorable/unfavorable numbers indicate that she's just not all that well-known in the district.

And there you have it. If these numbers hold, Democrats will win the Senate on Tuesday.

Hillary campaigning with Democratic Senator Bill Stachowski (D-Buffalo). In the background are Antoine Thompson, Joe Mesi, Bill Stachowski and U.S. Rep. Brian Higgins.

The rumors have been out there for a while: the DNC is apparently going to pump millions of dollars into New York to help take the Senate.

DNC chairman Howard Dean has made it a priority to help Democrats win down the ballot, so that if Obama wins the presidency, Democrats will have a larger majority in Congress. But with states planning to redistrict their congressional boundaries in 2012, control of state legislative chambers is all the more important, people close to Dean said.

In 2006, a last minute injection of $35 million from the DNC into House, Senate and state legislative races helped the party gain eight state legislative chambers.

Some of this year's cash could be sent to U.S. House races; most would be earmarked for races further down the ballot.
This year, having plucked the low-hanging fruit, Democrats have set their sights on tougher pulls, like New York's state senate. "It's the biggest toss-up on the map," says Matt Compton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

Other targets for Democrats include: Ohio, Wisconsin, Delaware and the Texas House, where Democrats are five seats away from the majority; the Obama campaign has added organizers to help them.

Concurrently, Barack Obama may be spreading some of his staggering wealth as well.

With tens of millions more to spend than McCain, Obama has gone on the offensive in dozens of states, including several once considered long shots, such as North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri. He is running three television ads to every one aired by McCain, and he has built a massive operation to reach voters on Election Day.

The campaign has raised so much money that it is considering passing some along to Democratic Party committees to try to help grow the party's majorities in Congress, according to a campaign source.

Yes, that's a tsunami you're looking at.

Part 1: Albany Reform
Part 2: Reproductive freedom
Part 3: Labor rights

In June, legislative leaders announced a deal on foreclosures, halfway between the preferred republican approach of doing nothing and the Democratic goal of a one-year foreclosure moratorium. Of course, the financial interests that own the republicans wouldn't have anything to do with a one-year moratorium; in consequence, one of their stooges, Caesar Trunzo, put his name on a bill that provided for a ninety-day warning period before you lose your home - a warning, not relief. The difference is clear: under the Democratic plan - Sheldon Silver has his occasional uses - you can't be evicted from your home for a year. Under the Trunzo plan, they have to send you a note and then kick you to the curb.

There are two very clear deductions from that, both of which point, again, to why we need a Democratic Senate. One, with Democrats in charge, you won't find legislation written by Wall Street, period. Two, with Democrats in charge, good Progressive legislation, like the one-year moratorium, will pass both houses and thus, actually become law.

Part 1: Albany Reform

Surveying the national political scene these days is a thing of wonder and beauty for patriotic Americans, and cause for despair among republicans. In every region of the country, formerly red states are embracing Barack Obama and Democrats; we're leading in Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, North Dakota, Colorado and New Mexico. Our Senate candidates seem poised to win in such unfriendly terrain as Alaska and North Carolina and many others besides, putting a filibuster-proof sixty seat majority within our grasp. If we do capture majorities of this magnitude, we will transform the nation for a generation. Here's what the big map looks like today:

It's a truism in every Presidential election cycle: what really matters is the Supreme Court. The republicans certainly understood that in 2004; note how Bush's one signature achievement in his "second" term was the elevation to the bench of John Roberts and Samuel Alito, along with many others in a similar extremist, un-American vein to the lower levels of the Federal bench.

The main line of defense against the infestation of the Federal bench by extremist ideologues is at the state level. And here, again, the Senate is the first line of attack for the forces of reaction. The two main woman-haters in the upper house are Serph Maltese and Frank Padavan, offering between them four pieces of anti-choice legislation.

Bill Number: NY S6645
Defines pregnancy and conception in such a way that it could jeopardize access to contraception. Requires women receive state-mandated lecture which includes medically inaccurate information prior to obtaining abortion service and prohibits abortion unless women wait an additional 24 hours after receiving lecture. Subjects abortion providers to burdensome restrictions.
Sponsor: Maltese (R)

Bill Number: NY S6644
Allows certain individuals to refuse to perform any abortion services in all or most circumstances. Allows certain individuals to refuse to provide or dispense contraceptives in all or most circumstances.
Sponsor: Maltese (R)

But wait, there's more.

Bill Number: NY S3117
Amends definition of person in several sections of the criminal code to include "unborn child at any stage of gestation."
Sponsor: Maltese (R)

The only other anti-choice bill offered in the Senate in 2008 was Frank Padavan's NY S4431. The likely effects of these bills on women's reproductive freedom are profound. Maltese's three bills represent a three-pronged attack on women themselves: by defining a fetus as a person, during pregnancy, a woman is a ward of the state, responsible to the government, not her family or her doctor, for the well-being of a citizen. No comparable burden exists for men under any circumstances. By allowing providers to refuse to dispense contraceptives, and to refuse to provide required medical services, women are reduced to second-class citizens in a vital area of their lives, their health.

There's no reason to expect, what with a Democratic majority in the Assembly, that any of these bills will ever become law. However, the republican majority in the Senate precludes any affirmative steps on women's reproductive autonomy. Now, things are looking good for the forces of freedom right now; but remember, as Team Rove learned at its cost, that political fortunes can change in a historical instant. If we want to enact strong protections for choice, for access to contraception, and other issues of concern to women and men both, as a backstop against future reversals at the Federal level, we need a Democratic state Senate.

It occurs to me that our Democrats haven't really yet made the larger, overarching case for why this state needs to toss the do-nothing, spend-your-money republican majority in our State Senate. So, over the last few weeks of the campaign, we're going to try to make that case here on the blogs with a view to several policy areas that will benefit immensely from Democratic control of the legislature. We'll be looking at things like Albany reform, choice, economic opportunity, taxes, civil rights, labor, and other subjects that really don't get treated with seriousness in the back-and-forth - "You're a poopiehead!" "No, you're the poopiehead!" - of a campaign involving the party of Karl Rove, Joe Bruno and George Bush.

I'm not alone in thinking that the most important subject at stake this year is Albany Reform, as articulated in the Brennan Center Report. Briefly, while the average New Yorker may think that we have a legislature - there are biennial elections, committees, bunting of the most convincing sort - that's actually not true. The two chambers of our legislature are run by two men, Sheldon Silver in the Assembly, and Dean Skelos in the Senate. By "run", you need to understand "no, you're a member of the other party, you can't have a pencil" and "no, sorry, your bill will never make it to the floor - ever" and "Oh, so you want a debate. Ha, that's cute".

Malcolm Smith and hiis Democrats have been adamant that they will enact the Brennan Center Reforms, probably with some minor filing at the edges. But the Democrats are serious about doing this, for several reasons: one, because a lot of money for our push for the majority comes from the reform community, and two, because it's the right thing to do for everyone, including republicans.

Now, passing these process reforms is not a panacea for what ails Albany; the conventional wisdom is that, once the Senate changes its rules, the Assembly will follow suit. I'm not personally very optimistic on that score, at least not immediately; there's been some messaging recently defending as much power for Speaker Silver as he can hold on to. But if you want to change the way Albany does business, and to make it more responsive to you, the citizen, your best hope - really, your only hope - is to help the Democrats take the Senate.

An interesting press release today from Jim Gennaro.

FLUSHING, NY (Sept. 29, 2008) Governor David A. Paterson today endorsed Democrat Jim Gennaro, who is battling 36-year incumbent Republican State Senator Frank Padavan in Northeast Queens' 11th District.

"In his seven years on the New York City Council, Jim Gennaro has established himself as one of the most effective legislators in New York City," Governor Paterson said. "He is a champion public servant who fights tenaciously for Northeast Queens on education, health care, tax relief and quality of life issues. On the issues of environmental protection and greener, more affordable energy, his record is unsurpassed. Jim's fearless, reform-minded independence are exactly what Albany needs, and I'm delighted to endorse his candidacy for the New York State Senate."

Councilman Gennaro said that the endorsement is a clear indicator of his campaign's momentum and that Governor Paterson is committed to ending the gridlock that Albany suffers by helping to elect legislators who promise to work hard and work together.

"I cannot be more proud today in receiving the endorsement of Governor Paterson, who has proven to be a successful steward for progress in Albany," Councilman Gennaro said. "By endorsing the Gennaro for New York campaign, Governor Paterson is sending a clear message that the way to fix government and make it more responsive to New Yorkers is by electing fresh new leaders who will fight for what's right for their constituents."

Councilman Gennaro is running as a new choice in a district where the leadership has gone stale after too many years in power, he said. He argues that the current incumbent has squandered too many chances to serve working families, especially in the areas of fiscal fairness and sufficient education and transit funding.

Apparently - the governor is also backing Rick Dollinger against Joe Robach, and rumor has it he'll shortly become far more active - David Paterson has decided that a Democratic Senate is in his best interest. Good for all of us.

SD-3 Democratic challenger Brian Foley is out with his first ad, and directly takes on out-of-touch octogenarian incumbent Caesar Trunzo's message that 'you don't fix what's not broken'.

The ad unintentionally highlights one of the central dynamics of this entire election: people are sick and tired of things as they are. Locally, it's property taxes; at the state level, an un-democratic, dysfunctional legislature coupled with a culture of secrecy and legalized bribery of legislators, special-interest groups, and citizens themselves, all while the budget tanks and nobody has a clue what to do about any of this; nationally, with a war we didn't need to fight, with a financial sector in meltdown, with job losses that will top a million before Christmas and, of course, with millions of Americans losing their homes. Trunzo's decision to call for continuity - other republicans, notably New York Senate republicans, are trying to make the same argument - flies in the face of everything that we know about public opinion in this cycle.

The Senate republicans have made a number of bad choices this cycle, recruiting a weak field of candidates and spending millions of dollars to go on offense without moving the needle much, if at all, in their targeted races. Trunzo's stay-the-course messaging - and similar efforts by other members of his conference - may prove to be a similar mistake.

Transcript below the fold.

I've been increasingly annoyed by the mail pieces I'm seeing from the SD-3 race between Democrat Brian Foley and Bilbo Baggins hobbit-like incumbent Caesar Trunzo. Wait, here's a picture of Bilbo from his campaign site.

Positively screams vigor and action, doesn't it?

Here's what's annoying: the mail pieces are filled with action words. Caesar is "fighting for us", "leading the way", "keeping our taxes low" (aside: "keeping"? Does he not get out much?), "providing for our children", that kind of stuff. My favorite is the government-franked piece with a boxing glove on the cover smashing into a gas pump, announcing that Bilbo is fighting high gas prices. In jurisdictions less lax with abuse of office postal privileges, that piece would trigger an investigation, but hey, this is New York.

So why is this irritating? Simple. Far from leading, fighting, clearing a path through the brush with his bare teeth, Caesar Trunzo hasn't said a word in the Senate since at least 2006, probably 2005. Maybe someone can explain to me how you can lead, fight, tear out the throats of evil-doers with your toe-nails, without actually saying anything.