The unemployment rate jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in just one month, the largest jump in 22 years. Did everyone suddenly get laid off? No. The problem with numbers like this is that they are incomplete.

The one factor left out of the headline is the number of people who are considered to be in the workforce -- either with a job or actively seeking a job. For the past five months, the number of people with a job has declined, but the unemployment rate barely budged because so many people gave up and weren't considered part of the workforce. Last month, about 400,000 people re-entered the workforce; combined with 49,000 lost jobs, that caused the surge.

The real problem is in the long-term numbers. Note the chart below:

This chart shows the percentage of adult Americans who have a job, from 1948 to the present. Notice that the chart generally rises when the economy expands and falls during a recession (with a slight lag). Notice also that every peak over the last 45 years is higher than the previous peak -- except one.

Yes, the "peak" we hit in late 2006 was far behind the mid-2000 peak, and the number has been dropping ever since.

Now take a look at this chart:

This chart is the percentage of American adults in the labor force, including both people with a job and those actively seeking work. From 1948 until early 1965 the number barely budged overall. Since then, coinciding with the beginning of the "war on poverty," the number generally rose, peaking in the spring of 2000. Since then, it has been sliding. In February, the number hit a 19 1/2 year low, then ticked up a tiny bit in March. In May, the number ticked up again, from 66.0% to 66.2% -- and that caused the surge in the headline unemployment rate.

As you can see, over a half century of progress has been reversed under Bush. The key is finding a way to explain this to the general population.

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