from Liz Benjamin's blog

She wrote: "On the Democratic side, a source confirms the rumor that Councilman Domenic Recchia is NOT expected to follow through with his nascent bid for Fossella's seat, despite the fact that he is sitting on some $325,000.

That leaves Brooklyn attorney Stephen Harrison, who ran an unsuccessful challenge to Fossella in 2006, as the lone announced candidate. . "

If Diane Savino enters the race now, there will be a very tough primary battle. I will remain a Harrison supporter for two reasons: 1) He has laid out good reasons to vote for him, 2) Nobody else was willing to step up and challenge Vito Fossella.

In defense of Savino's unwillingness to challenge Fossella, she would have to sacrifice her state Senate seat to do so. At a time when Democrats appear poised to take control of that body, and with rules reform a major topic, Savino has a good chance not only to chair a powerful committee but also to get the power to do something with it. Giving that up for an uncertain chance at something bigger is a major risk.

My guess (and it's just a guess -- not even a particularly educated guess at that) is that Savino will stay where she is. I think she'll figure it from a longer-term perspective, something someone as young as she is can do. If Harrison loses she'll have a better chance in 2010 to mount a major run for Congress against a freshman Republican and win. If Harrison wins, however, he probably isn't the type of person who will still be there in 20 years -- he's not about making a career of being an elected official. That still leaves Savino as the "heir apparent" to the seat, which she'd probably get far more easily and while still young enough to make an impact there.

Of course, decisions like this are both far more complicated than can be fully examined in a short blogpost, and far more simple when the time comes to decide.

I think the state and national GOP leaders will heavily pressure Vito to resign now and not at the end of this term. He's facing a trial on the DUI charges and probable jail time. They don't want him being a sitting Congressman when this goes down. Also simple math would tell you that in a special election if the GOP runs one candidate and the Demcorats run two, three or four, it benefits them more than running one on one against a democrat in a general election.

In addition a special election would presumably not be held in November so no top of the ballot Democrat coattails would apply. The GOP has every reason to want a special election I would think. If there is a special election and Diane Savino, one of Staten Island's sitting state senators runs, she will be very difficult to beat. Steve Harrison would have to think long and hard about making that race. He might be better off sitting out the special election, hoping a republican wins and making the next general.

The NY Times reached Vito Lopez who stated that Mr. Recchia was out of the race for family and personal reasons . "Domenic is out" said Lopez. Council Member Recchia, apparently had not heard the news in quite the same way.

If Lopez really wants a Republican victory in the 13th, he'll back Harrison for Congress

My guess is that Lopez and Recchia have woken up and smelled the coffee; while I always felt Recchia was both the stronger candidate and the better Democrat, that was only in comparison to Harrison. I’ve always maintained an Islander would be preferable.

Any of the Staten Island candidates would be far stronger than either of them, or Peter Abbate. I know loyalty is important, so I don’t begrudge you nothing for stickin' , but if the real aim is victory, then Harrison should get out--and he should be rewarded for the gesture, with real support for Marty Golden’s State Senate seat. if he runs for that, I’ll certainly forgive him all his past trespasses, and I’ll write the first check. Moreover, if he performs valiantly and falls short, he deserves backing for Council the next year.

Oh, and to the guy who thinks the Republicans want a special—are you crazy---Barack Obama will get his clock cleaned in this district, which went for Bush against Kerry. The Republicans want this race in November.

1. Recchia's out and has been out for a while. Lopez just made it formal althought I wish he would of allowed Dom to do that, after all he was supposed to be the candidate.
2. McMahon is still considering running but I don't see him doing this with his wife also running for Judge. Also, he would have to give up his law practice and spend at least 1/2 of every week out of town something he used as the excuse not to run in '06.
3. Savino may run if it's a special and wouldn't effect her running again in November should she lose the Congressional Race.
Neither Savino or McMahon have anything in place to run a campaign although as seasoned politicians they maybe able to get things in order. Remember, petitioning starts June 3rd which is 2 weeks away.
4. Steve Harrison announced he was running in August 2007. He has boots, he has endorsements and he's prepared to run whether it was Vito or another Republican. Steve got 43.7% of the vote in 2006. This was the most any Democratic candidate received against Vito. The 2 that came closest to that were Frank Barbaro and Sal Alberese (2 more Brooklyn Candidates).

mentions Donovan and Lanza as possible Republicans, and McMahon and Cusick as possible Staten-Island- based Democrats. No mention of Savino, I'm guessing because unless there's a special election (and possibly even if it's a special) they need her to hold her Senate seat. It burns me that McMahon turned up his nose at this race in 2006 and let Harrison do the dirty work of roughing up Fossella, but now that this seat looks like low-hanging fruit he's interested.

I think it would be unreasonable for the state party to pressure Diane Savino not to run for Congress just to save their asses in the state legislature. Open seats in congress are incredibly rare. This could be the only time in Diane Savino's political career that the seat comes open. She might not have another chance to run for an open congress seat for twenty years. If the Democrats won her state senate seat, they can win it again with another candidate.

Diane Savino is a rising star in the party, she ought to be encouraged to run for higher office. Not told that she isn't allowed to have ambitions because her duty is to the party insiders in Albany.

As the old adage is," what goes around . comes around." And it certainly has comes around to Councilman Domenic Recchia. One of the first politicians to endorse him for the congressional race, was Senator Diane Savino. Just as he has backstabbed both other politicans and other people, it has come back & bit him in the behind. Thank you Ms. Savino. Thank God for term limits.

A story on the Daily News site says that Savino has indicated to party leaders that she probably is not running, and that Cusick, McMahon and Recchia are holding "private talks among themselves" to come up with a consensus candidate, apparently because the party bosses want to avoid a competitive primary. The DCCC wants to sink big bucks into this campaign now that the seat is open and they do not want to waste it on a primary.

So Steve Harrison doesn't even get invited to these "talks" right? Nor does he even get mentioned at all in that article nor in the NY Post article yesterday. I expect that the DCCC and the party bosses are going to choose among Cusick, McMahon and Recchia, and will back whoever it is with $2 million or so, and Harrison will be told he's out. That he needs to drop out and back the party's choice for the open seat, so no money has to be spent on a primary, or he will incur the wrath of the bosses.

Steve is Rodney Dangerfield. He gets no respect.