Hello, Super Tuesday; I’m gonna pin a name on you; after the vote is counted Tuesday: Billary’s Waterloo.
I didn’t want to do a pre-Super Tuesday column; I really didn’t. I am so tired of all the bullshit on these blogs, coming from anonymous attackers not wanting intelligent discourse- but just wanting to get their rocks off (and aimed at me of course)- that I thought about taking a pass. However, I have had so many requests for such a column, that I couldn’t wait till next week (to do my now deliberate: one a week column); so here I am; a few days early.
One hundred and ninety three years ago, Napoleon Bonaparte of France fought a battle against the British, and lost at Waterloo; this signaled the beginning of the end of Napoleon’s colorful reign. On Super Tuesday, Bill and Hillary Clinton will meet their Waterloo, when they go into political battle with Barack Hussein Obama in about two dozen varied states. At the end of the night, it will be clear to near everyone (bar the die-hard Clinton-fanatics) that the Clinton dynasty is coming to an end.
Super Tuesday (Feb.5th, 2008) will leave Hillary Clinton gasping for oxygen, in trying to keep up the delegate pace with Obama. Sure she will win the popular vote in some of the states up for grabs; and sure she will win some of the delegates up for grabs; but at the end of the night: she will still be lined up behind Obama in the delegate count. This is where the end for Billary begins. Super delegates will be rushing into the Obama column after Tuesday; like a bargain-hunter at the day after Christmas sale.
Okay; now for some predictions.
First; Obama will win California. The Independent voters there will put him over the top; despite the large absentee vote which may have gone Clinton’s way. It will be close; but at the end of the night I am very optimistic that he will prevail. This is one of a few big mistakes, which Obama’s campaign has made through this political season so far: not going ‘gung ho’ in Cali much earlier than they did. They should have gone all out for California as they did for Iowa and South Carolina. But it doesn’t matter; you can’t stop history without a bullet.
Second; the polls in New York are wrong. It is much closer than they are saying. Obama will be very competitive in the city of New York. Expect a record turnout (for a presidential primary) in every state. Hillary will probably win her N.Y. home state (as she should), but Obama will leave here (NY) with a bunch of delegates. He will pick up lots of delegates in the north and eastern corridors from Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut to Massachusetts. I expect him to win at least two of these states.
Thirdly; I expect that at the end of the night, both camps will pick up good delegates; but by Wednesday morning: Barack Hussein (Barry) Obama will be still leading the count- as he is right now. Do note however, that I am not factoring-in the “super-delegatesâ€; there are different dynamics to those delegates (in terms of commitment) which will play out later; plus they all have flexibility. The super delegates hold the key as to how early this campaign ends for Billary; many can- and will- switch their allegiance.
Finally; at the end of the night, I expect that on Super Tuesday more people will vote for Obama than Hillary; nationwide. If Billary loses both California and New York, they will end her campaign; and she should be then put on suicide-watch (seriously). That NY/ CALI double is very possible for Obama; and believe me when I say that the Clinton’s are deathly afraid of it. The pollsters aren’t picking up many of the things that are happening in this campaign folks; there is a lot of momentum for Obama all over this country (even in NY). He has “Big Mo†going for him, and to the Clintons: that is scary.
Overall; there is the potential for a big win for Obama all over the country this coming Tuesday; the writing is on the wall; many don’t want to see it. And even if it is closer than I think it will be, that in itself will still be a big victory for Obama’s under-dog campaign.
Who would have thunk this a year ago? Well; I did (lmao/rofl).
Look; when I predicted last year that the US presidency was Obama’s (since I have been instructed not to repeat my asterisks): no one gave me the time of day. Somewhere in the cosmic scheme of things: Rodney Dangerfield is smiling; on Wednesday morning he will be grinning.
If Billary leaves Super-Tuesday still limping along, there will be tremendous pressure on them to do the right thing; which is in essence: drop out the race. I hope that they don’t fracture the party anymore than they have already one. I hope they unite this party early enough to guarantee a victory for Democrats: come next November. I also hope they recognize “Waterloo†and understand the history behind it. I hope they understand that more history can be made this year, even if it isn’t made by them (both Clintons). Folks; that history is at the fork in the road called: destiny. I hope the Clintons understand all this, and do the right thing: when the time is right.
Stay tuned-in folks; the finish line is in sight: even for those who are blind.
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Hillary Clinton
It won't be over yet...
I see two scenarios. One: A good showing for Obama, but with Clinton edging him out and, with her Superdelegates, remaining in the lead.
Two: a big win for Obama, at least on the surface, including a win in California.
But both scenarios are likely to hide the fact that BOTH candidates have very solid support in most states, and so BOTH will pick up lots of delegates. The only way this will end early is if Hillary trounces Obama, which I consider unlikely.
Hillary will keep a hold of superdelegates, and if Obama starts surging in delegates too much, watch for the Michigan and Florida delegates to become the focus of some interesting, and unprecedented, law suits.
It is clear that Hillary has lost her front runner status. Obama has caught up and still has momentum to pass her, but never underestimate the Clintons. They are a tenacious and smart bunch and Super Tuesday will not be their Waterloo. It COULD be her Gettysburg, a turning point that becomes the clear moment of defeat in retrospect, but it won't be decisive. And maybe, just maybe, it will be the Gettysburg for Obama.
I am hoping for an Obama win, and I am consistently amazed at how he has been able to build from each success to bigger successes. The spate of recent endorsements has been amazing and could be profound on Super Tuesday. But I think we can't know yet. But either way I am pretty happy with this year. The Republicans are the major losers so far, though by nominating McCain they may revive their chances at least a little.