Eliot's polls: dismal
Okay, this is ugly: the Siena Research Institute posted poll numbers for Eliot Spitzer that are pretty much in free fall.
Seventy-two percent of New York voters who have read or heard about the Governor’s proposal to allow undocumented aliens to obtain New York driver’s licenses oppose the Governor’s plan, while only 22 percent support it, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters released today. The Siena New York poll also shows that Eliot Spitzer’s job performance rating is lower than it has ever been, with a majority of voters saying he’s doing a fair or poor job. If the 2010 gubernatorial race were held today, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, running as a Republican, would beat Democrat Spitzer 50-37 percent.
"Nearly three-quarters of voters – including 59 percent of Democrats – oppose the Governor’s plan to give driver’s licenses to undocumented aliens," said Steven Greenberg, Siena New York Poll spokesman. "The voters’ message to the Governor is clear: ‘No, no, no.’ Opposition to the Spitzer proposal is intense, with 41 percent strongly opposing it and only 7 percent strongly supporting it.
It gets worse.
Spitzer’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 54-36 percent, down from 56-26 percent last month, and a high of 75-10 percent in January. His job performance rating is 41 percent positive 55 percent negative, down from 44-49 percent last month, and a high of 57-36 percent in May.
"While the Governor’s numbers may not be falling off a cliff, they are rolling swiftly and solidly down hill," Greenberg said.
"In four short months, the voters’ view of Spitzer’s job performance has reversed itself. Four times as many voters think he’s doing a poor job as think he’s doing an excellent job," Greenberg said. "Since January, his favorability has fallen by 21 points while his unfavorability has risen by 26 points."
While Eliot's job approval rating is still positive - at 54-36, he has a 21% net positive rating - a fall of 21% since January is not something to be crowed about. And while there is a precedent for that, with Ronald Reagan enduring a similar collapse in his first term only to solidly rebound, Mike Bloomberg is no Walter Mondale, and Reagan didn't try to win control of the Senate in the midterms. That, however, is Eliot's goal.
The governor and his people need to start asking themselves some very hard questions. Something's not working, folks.
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Public Opinion | Eliot Spitzer
While Gov. Spitzer's poll number sink,
Submitted by Daniel Millstone on 16 October 2007 - 6:24pm.
those of us who had some hope that his election help to could bring progressive change to New York might ask why these problems seem to recur. While I don't know the answer, I think leaving the answer to Mr. Spitzer & his aides may not bear fruit.
Why do you think the popularity of Mr. Spitzer & his programs are wilting?
I suspect the manner in which policy directions are announced without discussion and debate isolates the Governor. The driver's license issue, where personally I agree with the Governor's position, is a fair case in point, in my view. Prior to the announcement of the change in policy, had you noticed any public debate on the issue? Me neither and it's an issue I've followed fairly closely.
Thus, while I like the outcome, the process is, and appears, arbitrary and imposed without discussion by the stakeholders. Some of us made fun of Candidate Clinton's listening tour when she first ran for Senate in 2000. But perhaps some listening would come in handy here.
Not to fear
Submitted by Paul Newell on 17 October 2007 - 3:26am.
People are not happy with Albany. Small wonder.
Bruno, Silver & Co. have similar numbers to Spitzer. Such anti-incumbent sentiment can only be positive for our Senate hopes, but indeed could help remind our comfortable Assembly majority that elections are occasionally lost.
Spitzer came to office committed to reforming Albany. With our help, he may yet succeed. Our sclerotic legislature has won the first round. Time for another dose of "throw the bums out".
poll numbers
I'm actually delighted that his poll numbers haven't fallen even further down. This is something he can recover from, even though the Republican response to Spitzer's driver's license plan will not help, since as the poll mentions most New Yorker's are giving in to the image being portrayed by the Right.
I'm not too worried about the 2010 elections at this point, but of course I'm sure everyone is thinking about the 2008 elections. I think what might further hurt our goal to make Joe Bruno the next Senate Minority Leader is the possible election of Rudy Giuliani as the Republican nominee for President, which would make New York a competitive state and pulling out the New York Republicans. This scenario, in addition to the public perception of Spitzer, might in effect ruin our chances to take the Senate in 2008, though it still would be winnable. The best scenario I see is the Republicans choosing Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney, and the Democrats choosing Hillary (The progressive in me just smacked myself), as Hillary would be the best means of drawing out Democratic votes in NY State.
From what I have read, the Driver's license plan goes into effect possibly in December, which gives us about 8-9 months to let the policy work, and ideally the opposition from New Yorkers will die down as they realize the positive effects Spitzer's plan will have. The positive effect of all this is the attention is slowly turning away from the pointless Choppergate scandal. Spitzer's poll numbers may continue to go down as the Republicans blow more smoke in the next few months, but Spitzer must stay on task and continue to discredit the Republican opposition if he want to defeat them in 2008.