Democratic strategist Doug Forand emails over an analysis of the recent poll done in the Maltese / Addabo / Baldeo matchup that takes some of the wind out of republican crowing regarding the state of that contest. As a reminder, in an unreleased poll, the Maltese campaign released numbers for the three-way matchup in SD-15 that showed the Senator at 45%, Democratic candidate Joe Addabbo at 18%, independent Albert Baldeo at 3%, and 35% undecided.

Before examining the results of the poll, it is important to look at the demographic nature of the sample used, as it appears likely to skew the results to be more favorable for Senator Maltese. Most notably, according to the polling memo, 30% of the respondents are registered Republicans, while information from the New York State Board of Elections shows that the actual Republican enrollment within the district is just under 22% - an over-representation of the GOP base by 36%. Even if we screen out unlikely voters, only looking at new registrants and voters who have a history indicating that they are likely to vote in a presidential election, the GOP enrollment only climbs to 22.5%. The sample also under-represents women, who represent only 52% of the respondents when the actual percentage of likely women voters, based on enrollment and voter history, is over 55%.

However, even if we assume the sample produces results that are valid within the margin of error (4.9%), the data presented is not favorable for Senator Maltese. Reflecting his 20 years in office, Senator Maltese is very well-known within the district, with substantive name recognition of 87% and he is generally held in good regard. Despite this and after two decades of representing this constituency, Maltese is only supported by 45% of the voters in the initial trial heat against Councilman Addabbo, which is a strong indicator that the voters in this district want change. This also explains his near-loss in the 2006 elections – people know him and don’t dislike him, but they are not inclined to support his re-election bid.

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The Daily Gotham is pleased to announce our inaugural interview in a series, in which we're going to be talking one on one with Democratic movers and shakers from around New York. We're kicking off the series with Doug Forand, of the New York State Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

TDG: Tell us a little bit about the DSCC. What does it do?

Doug Forand: The DSCC is the statewide campaign committee that supports the political goals of the Senate Democrats and helps Democrats get elected (or stay elected) to the State Senate. We raise funds; design campaign plans and provide campaign oversight; help with targeting; recruit campaign staff and provide whatever means of support are necessary for as many campaigns as possible. Our most visible work is in recruiting candidates and raising funds which we spend on our candidates’ behalf.

TDG: What role do you see the New York blogosphere and the netroots generally playing in the 2008 election for the State Senate?

Doug Forand: I think that down ballot races, such as State Senate races, are the next frontier where we’re likely to see a real impact by blogosphere. From the breakthrough impact on the 2004 presidential campaigns to last year’s Congressional races (the work by Take 19 in the John Hall district being a great example), each successive election cycle has seen an increased impact due to new media and electronic organizing. That being said, State Senate and other down ballot races are really in their infancy when it comes to being prepared to capitalize off of this medium, whether it’s in organizing, communications, or fundraising. That’s a challenge we have to address.

Looking specifically at New York’s blogosphere, I see huge potential for State Senate races. The blogs’ readership tends to represent a strong progressive base, and moving this base to a point where they recognize the importance of State Senate races can motivate them to be more involved in those races will pay significant dividends. The blogs’ coverage of our races, our candidates and our opponents will influence how the main stream media perceives and covers the races. Finally, the blogs’ influence can translate into fundraising support for our candidates and our committee.

TDG: What is, in your opinion, the track record of the current Senate majority? Why does New York need a Democratic Senate?