My friend Doug Forand emails over a release touting his firm's recent success in liberating the state Senate.

Red Horse Strategies Delivers Historic Win for Senate Democrats

Tonight's historic win for the Senate Democrats, elevating the Democrats to the majority for the first time in over 40 years, represents another in a string of underdog victories for Red Horse Strategies. RHS developed the statewide campaign strategy for the Senate Democrats and oversaw its implementation in the DSCC's targeted offensive and defensive races.

"We're honored to have played a role in helping the Senate Democrats finally achieve a majority, with Leader Malcolm Smith poised to become the new Majority Leader," said Marc Lapidus, Senior Partner for RHS. "Our team has shown time and time again that smart strategy and well-executed campaigns can easily overcome spending and enrollment disadvantages to win tough elections."

The partners of RHS have been working with the DSCC since the 2006 election cycle, when they won two targeted races; and through Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine's successful special elections in 2007 and 2008.

In yesterday’s elections, the DSCC and RHS successfully protected all incumbent Democrats while defeating two long-term incumbent Republicans in Queens and Long Island.

Red Horse Strategies provides campaigns and candidates with strategic guidance, tactical analysis, message development and operational oversight. It is led by Nathan Smith, Marc Lapidus and Doug Forand, who collectively bring decades of government and political experience to each campaign they work on.

Full disclosure: myself and Phil Anderson have been working with Red Horse for the last six months. And it's been great; in politics, often enough, you waste time massaging egos, doing stuff you have to do because some idiot high up in the hierarchy wants it done, whatever. You don't have that with Doug. If Barack Obama is drama-free, Doug is in a category of his own.

For anyone seeking public office in the 2009 elections, having a contract with Forand and Company is probably the best money you can spend. Added bonus: we bloggers consider Doug our friend, in part because that's just what the relationship looks like, in part because we trust him.

So, all you candidates: go out there and hire Doug Forand. Well, only if you want to win, that is.  read more »

Doug Forand is the chief strategist of the New York Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, DSCC.

Q: Doug, good morning. Three days out, what’s your take on the state of the race? Do you see any surprises on Election Day?

A: Good morning. Right now, the races are tightening as the undecided voters start to break and we feel very good about how that’s going to shake out. There’s strong sentiment out there that the GOP has simply failed voters on every level - federal, state and local – and people want change. The early argument that the Senate Republicans were making – that McCain would drag them across the finish line – has evaporated in the face of Bush’s economic collapse and the high-tax, low-job-creation environment fostered by the Senate Republicans.

Q: We on the blogs have been writing for years about the importance of taking the Senate for any number of reasons. What are, speaking for yourself, the top three issues that will be positively affected by a takeover?

A: I graduated from college during the Bush 41 recession and I know what a tough job market that was. Upstate New York never fully recovered during the subsequent economic expansion. People graduating now face even dimmer prospects, so the first thing that will change will be a real focus on meaningful job creation. Current policies have resulted in billions of dollars worth of tax breaks going to politically well-connected businesses rather than businesses that actually create jobs.

Second, decades of unfunded mandates and irresponsible spending have created an unsustainable tax system. We need to ease the tax burden on middle class and working families, and again, on those businesses which actually expand the job base.

Finally, we’ll see a change in the culture in Albany. The idea that you can have responsive government when (in the Senate) certain votes aren’t even recorded for fear of voters finding out is ludicrous. We need a Senate in which ideas can be discussed and debated in full view of the taxpayers. We need to recognize that no party has a monopoly on ideas – if there’s a good way to create jobs or lower taxes, whether it comes from a Democrat or a Republican, it should be heard. . Democracy works best when dissent is encouraged. It’s the process of hearing different viewpoints and considering different perspectives that leads to the best decisions being made.

Q: Republicans have been playing their usual upstate/downstate card against Democrats this year, but so far apparently without much success. We already saw, with the Aubertine race, that this attack has been somewhat blunted. Why do you think that’s the case?

A: Because the voters are smarter than the Republicans assume. All you have to do is look around upstate New York to see the abject failures of Republican policies. Job loss, high taxes, high crime rates – on all of the issues that were the once core of the GOP’s argument as to why they should stay in power, the Republicans have failed. And rather than come up with new ideas, they just yell “downstate” as loud as they can and hope that it works.

Above all, as we’ve also seen on the national level, voters know that the politics of divisiveness do not get things done. They may try to argue upstate versus downstate, blue state versus red state, my state versus your state, but as a former State Senator I very much admire once said, “We are the United States of America”. Similarly, we are One New York. When the upstate economy is failing, when families on Long Island can’t afford their property taxes, when a family in Queens has to choose between rent and paying for health care – these are problems that the entire state must deal with. Voters get that, but the Senate Republicans don’t.

Q: Any final appeals to our readers? What should people do to wake up in a blue state on Wednesday?

A: Make sure that you and everyone you know votes, and votes the entire ticket. There’s going to be a lot of excitement for Barack Obama, but we need vote for change in Washington and vote for change in Albany. In past presidential years, we’ve seen falloff (the percentage of people who vote for President but don’t vote at all for State Senate) as high as 25% in some districts. People need to vote for every position.

If you have any time at all, get out there and volunteer for a campaign. Some of our races have gotten a lot of press, some have gotten less. But every campaign can use some help.

For people who wonder whether their volunteering really makes a difference, just remember Andrea Stewart-Cousins in 2004. She lost by 18 votes. That means if just 10 people had voted differently than they did, she would have won. If 19 people who voted for Kerry but did not vote for State Senate had voted for her, she would have won. Any good volunteer who commits one day to a campaign can swing that many voters, and those votes could be the difference between a Democratic and Republican Senate come Wednesday.

Thank you, Doug. Let's go out and win this thing.

Democratic strategist Doug Forand emails over an analysis of the recent poll done in the Maltese / Addabo / Baldeo matchup that takes some of the wind out of republican crowing regarding the state of that contest. As a reminder, in an unreleased poll, the Maltese campaign released numbers for the three-way matchup in SD-15 that showed the Senator at 45%, Democratic candidate Joe Addabbo at 18%, independent Albert Baldeo at 3%, and 35% undecided.

Before examining the results of the poll, it is important to look at the demographic nature of the sample used, as it appears likely to skew the results to be more favorable for Senator Maltese. Most notably, according to the polling memo, 30% of the respondents are registered Republicans, while information from the New York State Board of Elections shows that the actual Republican enrollment within the district is just under 22% - an over-representation of the GOP base by 36%. Even if we screen out unlikely voters, only looking at new registrants and voters who have a history indicating that they are likely to vote in a presidential election, the GOP enrollment only climbs to 22.5%. The sample also under-represents women, who represent only 52% of the respondents when the actual percentage of likely women voters, based on enrollment and voter history, is over 55%.

However, even if we assume the sample produces results that are valid within the margin of error (4.9%), the data presented is not favorable for Senator Maltese. Reflecting his 20 years in office, Senator Maltese is very well-known within the district, with substantive name recognition of 87% and he is generally held in good regard. Despite this and after two decades of representing this constituency, Maltese is only supported by 45% of the voters in the initial trial heat against Councilman Addabbo, which is a strong indicator that the voters in this district want change. This also explains his near-loss in the 2006 elections – people know him and don’t dislike him, but they are not inclined to support his re-election bid.

More:  read more »

The Daily Gotham is pleased to announce our inaugural interview in a series, in which we're going to be talking one on one with Democratic movers and shakers from around New York. We're kicking off the series with Doug Forand, of the New York State Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

TDG: Tell us a little bit about the DSCC. What does it do?

Doug Forand: The DSCC is the statewide campaign committee that supports the political goals of the Senate Democrats and helps Democrats get elected (or stay elected) to the State Senate. We raise funds; design campaign plans and provide campaign oversight; help with targeting; recruit campaign staff and provide whatever means of support are necessary for as many campaigns as possible. Our most visible work is in recruiting candidates and raising funds which we spend on our candidates’ behalf.

TDG: What role do you see the New York blogosphere and the netroots generally playing in the 2008 election for the State Senate?

Doug Forand: I think that down ballot races, such as State Senate races, are the next frontier where we’re likely to see a real impact by blogosphere. From the breakthrough impact on the 2004 presidential campaigns to last year’s Congressional races (the work by Take 19 in the John Hall district being a great example), each successive election cycle has seen an increased impact due to new media and electronic organizing. That being said, State Senate and other down ballot races are really in their infancy when it comes to being prepared to capitalize off of this medium, whether it’s in organizing, communications, or fundraising. That’s a challenge we have to address.

Looking specifically at New York’s blogosphere, I see huge potential for State Senate races. The blogs’ readership tends to represent a strong progressive base, and moving this base to a point where they recognize the importance of State Senate races can motivate them to be more involved in those races will pay significant dividends. The blogs’ coverage of our races, our candidates and our opponents will influence how the main stream media perceives and covers the races. Finally, the blogs’ influence can translate into fundraising support for our candidates and our committee.

TDG: What is, in your opinion, the track record of the current Senate majority? Why does New York need a Democratic Senate?  read more »