There is some chatter that Christine Quinn might not be able to remain as Speaker of the City Council next year. A NY Post article lends fuel to that chatter.

There are several reasons for the Council to consider replacing her: The arm-twisting Quinn did for term-limits extension; the residual effects of the so-called "slush fund scandal" (which, rumor has it, will take out a few more Council members in the months ahead); her close relationship with Mayor Bloomberg (she has yet to endorse Bill Thompson, and may not ever endorse him); and the feeling around the Council that despite her attempt to be seen as a reformer she has been a classic strong-arm despot. In addition, she barely got a majority of votes in her three-way race; that is a sure sign of weakness.

Until now, the big question being asked is who would step up and challenge her. Before answering that, I'd like to look at it from a different viewpoint -- how could it happen?

She became Speaker, as did Gifford Miller before her, because then-Queens County Democratic leader Tom Manton struck a deal with them. Part of that deal included giving the two most powerful committees, Finance and Land Use, to Queens (David Weprin and Melinda Katz, respectively). Tom Manton is gone, but his protege Joe Crowley is in his place, and understands well the power politics of this decision.

But will Crowley support Quinn? What's more, Manton was able to forge ties with other county leaders, most notably Vito Lopez in Brooklyn and Jose Rivera in the Bronx, but it was Manton who took the lead. Chances are Vito Lopez will have a much stronger position this time, while Rivera's replacement, Carl Heastie, will probably be weaker. A Lopez-Crowley alignment, assuming they can keep their Council members in line, means at least 28 votes (not counting Republicans).

So who gets the top committees? Look for Simcha Felder, a CPA, to make a move on the Finance committee, and Brad Lander, whose work with the Pratt Institute gives him a resume to be considered, for Land Use. If those committees go to Brooklyn, the odds are that the Speaker slot will return to Queens.

Now, who from Queens might challenge Quinn? Third-termers in Queens include Vallone, Comrie, Gennaro and Sanders. Of those four Leroy Comrie is the strongest candidate. He is the Queens caucus chair, he handily survived a serious challenge, and he is African-American at a time when the Council will have a white minority. Tom White, having returned in 2005 after being term-limited out in 2001, has the experience but barely survived his challenge, winning by a mere four votes. Karen Koslowitz, however, must be considered a serious challenger. Like White, she was term-limited out in 2001. She spent the last eight years as Deputy Borough President and has returned to her old seat. She is a County favorite. My guess is that if Quinn is going to be challenged, however, it has to be by someone who isn't white, and that means Comrie.

Will Comrie challenge Quinn? It depends on what comes out of a Lopez-Crowley meeting. Right now, Joe Crowley is probably busy trying to get his cousin Elizabeth elected to a full term in the Council against former seatholder, Republican Tom Ognibene. Once the election is over, they will probably meet.

One fly in the ointment may be the need to garner votes outside of Brooklyn/Queens, because Quinn helped some of those Council members retain their seats. Most notably, Darlene Mealy, who changed her term-limits vote at the last minute, got staff and fundraising help from Quinn, and managed to hold off former seatholder Tracy Boyland by 78 votes; she will most likely, though not certainly, support Quinn. That "not certainly" is because Lopez could offer her a better committee than the subcommittee she also got in return for her term-limits vote, while Quinn will have a harder time offering her anything more.

And that's the final question -- who can offer better cookies to 26 Council members? Certainly Christine Quinn knows exactly what's available, and has the experience in doling out favors, but Lopez and Crowley aren't exactly rookies at this game.