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One day out: where we are

We're less than twenty-four hours from opening the polling places. Here is where things stand at this writing.

Electoralvote.com's final projection of the Electoral College looks like this (the projection on 538.com is roughly the same):

Note the weakness evident in the 'Barely republican' states; when Georgia, Montana, Indiana and North Dakota barely have a lead for McCain, things look very gloomy for the other side.

Gallup's final poll estimates Obama 55%, McCain 44%.

The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

Here's the corresponding graph.

A lot of things could still go wrong. Young voters could fail to materialize, the eight million volunteers Obama is relying on tomorrow could fail to show up. But barring satanic intervention, the odds favor a Democratic sweep tomorrow.

Bouldin's picture

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