The Siena Research Institute just released its final pre-election polling (.pdf) in several key races.

In SD-3, Brian Foley leads Caesar Trunzo 56% to 34%, a lead of twenty-two points in a district evenly divided, at 45% each, between Obama and McCain. That's extraordinary, and a testament to the strong campaign Foley has been running.

In Erie County's SD-58, Democrat Bill Stachowski reversed a poll deficit and now leads his corrupt opponent, Dennis Delano, by four points, 47% to 43%. Being under 50% is generally taken to signal some danger to incumbents, but the trend is going well for him.

In SD-61, republican Ranzenhffer leads Democrat Joe Mesi by five points, 47% to 42%. reversing an earlier Mesi lead. However, in a Democratic year, with our huge GOTV advantages, that deficit can be made up.

In SD-48, Senator Darrel Aubertine is crushing some guy, 49% to 38%. Another half million dollars down the drain for our friends at the SRCC.

IN SD-15, Joe Addabbo narrowly leads incumbent wingnut Serf Maltese by two points, 45% to 43%. This bears repeating: an incumbent legislator who's polling that far below 50% two days before the election needs to start thinking about other employment.

The most disappointing result is that from the Hannon-McElroy race. Kristen McElroy has all the makings of a Jeffersonian citizen-lawmaker; she's a mother of three, a practicing attorney, and just an all-around awesome person. Kemp Hannon is, in a caucus filled with nasty sons-of-bitches, one of the worst. And yet, he leads McElroy 56% to 30%. But don't treat this result as indicative of Hannon's strength; McElroy's combined 23% favorable/unfavorable numbers indicate that she's just not all that well-known in the district.

And there you have it. If these numbers hold, Democrats will win the Senate on Tuesday.