I think trying to tie the recession with "Octomom" was a bit of a stretch. Still, am comforted by the fact that a "Lady Who Lunches" like Peggy Noonan is feeling the recession in the Upper East Side like this lady who barely lunches here in the East Village :

If you want to feel the bruise of what's happened, pick a neighborhood full of shops and go up and down the street. Here's Second Avenue in the 80s. A jewelry and consignment store on 84th has a new sign on the window: "We Buy Gold." Paul is at the counter, spraying the tarnish off a silver chain. How's business? "No buyin', no sellin', no nothin'. It's a joke. People scared. They're in shock." Nearby, an empty storefront, a bar that had been in business only 10 months. The sign on the window—you see it all over Manhattan now—says, "Retail Space Available." Next door, in a small beauty salon, the owner says "We're trying to survive." In September business plummeted. It's down "at least 30%," she says. July and August had been surprisingly good; her clients didn't go away on vacation. In the fall they were fired. "They lost the job, so they don't need to cut and color so much."

In a liquor store just off 82nd, the owner, from India, says volume is still high but profits are down. "In business, if you have a product under $15, is good. People used to spend $70, $80 on a bottle of wine, all the bankers, the young kids. Nothing moving more than $15."

On 81st, the kosher restaurant has closed. On 79th, the Talbots is gone. "Left a few months ago," says the doorman next door.  read more »

(Note: Again, cross-posted from my website, from which you can also download the 7-page PDF file.)

For the next few weeks, much of the news emanating from Washington will be about whatever "economic stimulus package" Congress eventually passes. Naturally, everyone has gripes about the package as it is reported to stand currently, and everyone will have gripes about the final version of the package, whatever it is. Rather than gripe like all the others, however I thought I'd try something positive - outlining what a good, effective stimulus package should look like.  read more »

The unemployment rate jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in just one month, the largest jump in 22 years. Did everyone suddenly get laid off? No. The problem with numbers like this is that they are incomplete.

The one factor left out of the headline is the number of people who are considered to be in the workforce -- either with a job or actively seeking a job. For the past five months, the number of people with a job has declined, but the unemployment rate barely budged because so many people gave up and weren't considered part of the workforce. Last month, about 400,000 people re-entered the workforce; combined with 49,000 lost jobs, that caused the surge.

The real problem is in the long-term numbers. Note the chart below:

This chart shows the percentage of adult Americans who have a job, from 1948 to the present. Notice that the chart generally rises when the economy expands and falls during a recession (with a slight lag). Notice also that every peak over the last 45 years is higher than the previous peak -- except one.  read more »

The Big Bush, Little Gerogie Bush, and Jeb Bush have all given John McCain their approval. Could there be a worse endorsement? Does America REALLY want yet ANOTHER four years of failed Bush policies? I think that is a resounding NO!!!

The Bush family have brought us two of the least popular Presidents in American history.

The Bush family helped arm Saddam Hussein before declaring him our enemy. They have brought us two Iraq wars, the most recent has turned into a quagmire sucking our soldiers and dollars down with no end in sight and no exit stratgy and no strategic purpose.

The Bush family helped arm al-Qaeda, then stupidly ignored warnings of an impending attack, allowing al-Qaeda to hit us hard. And they have failed to stop al-Qaeda even AFTER they attacked us.  read more »