We're less than twenty-four hours from opening the polling places. Here is where things stand at this writing.

Electoralvote.com's final projection of the Electoral College looks like this (the projection on 538.com is roughly the same):

Note the weakness evident in the 'Barely republican' states; when Georgia, Montana, Indiana and North Dakota barely have a lead for McCain, things look very gloomy for the other side.

Gallup's final poll estimates Obama 55%, McCain 44%.

The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.

Here's the corresponding graph.

A lot of things could still go wrong. Young voters could fail to materialize, the eight million volunteers Obama is relying on tomorrow could fail to show up. But barring satanic intervention, the odds favor a Democratic sweep tomorrow.

Remember how speakers at the RNC claimed that Barack Obama had never reached across the aisle to pass any major legislation?

Well ...

On April 6, 2006, S.2590, the "Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006," was introduced into the 109th Congress. The bill was eventually passed by Congress and signed by George W. Bush on September 26, 2006. It is now Public Law 109-282.

So what does this bill do? It mandates the creation of a single, publicly accessible website where anyone can see every Federal award (meaning grants, contracts, and other transactions where the federal government pays out money to someone). In other words, it puts the federal checkbook online for everyone to see. You may remember Sarah Palin promising to do this if she becomes VP? Well, someone beat her to it.

But who?

Turns out the bill was introduced jointly by four Senators, two Republicans and two Democrats. The two Democrats were Tom Carper (of Delaware) and Barack Obama. The lead Republican was Tom Coburn (of Oklahoma).

The other Republican was ... John McCain.

You can't make this stuff up.

(N.B.: These numbers are as of today's listings, but do not necessarily reflect recent gains by Obama in the polls. State-by-state poll numbers seem to trail national numbers by about a week.)

I'm following four separate handicappers, CNN, the NY Times, Congressional Quarterly (CQ), and the Cook Political Report (Cook). The scenarios are similar, and close enough to make some predictions:

By general consensus (or near consensus), Obama will win:
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
Maryland
Delaware
DC
Illinois
California
Hawaii
That's 153 electoral votes.

He is heavily expected to win:
Maine
New Jersey
Washington
Oregon
That's 37 more, making the total 190.

He is also expected to win:
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
That's 48 more, for 238.

He is favored somewhat in:
Michigan
New Mexico
22 more, making it to 260.

Then there's Colorado, a swing state that Obama could very well win. Those 9 electoral votes give him 269. Even if he loses other swing states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, he'll still get to that magic 269.  read more »

(Note: This is an update from a column first written in February of 2005. This column, and a couple hundred others, is also on my website.)

As the McCain campaign's ... let's call them "inaccuracies" ... mount up, they are certain to turn again to that old Republican standard, "values." The argument will be that the "liberal" Barack Obama and his "liberal" running mate are out of touch with American values, while the veteran McCain and his "hockey mom" running mate are perfectly in line. This will be expanded to claim, once again, that the entire Democratic Party is out of touch and the entire Republican Party represent American values incarnate.

This begs the question, is the values claim as inaccurate as the rest of McCain's statements and advertisements?  read more »

While Mayor of Wasilla:
The budget grew by 40% in 7 years -- after adjusting for inflation.
She raised taxes to build a stadium.
When she became mayor, the city had no long-term debt; she left behind $19 million in debt.
She hired a lobbyist to bring in federal earmarks -- that lobbyist, Steven Silver, was a former chief of staff to Ted Stevens.
Among pork that McCain has found "objectionable": A 2001 earmark of $500,000 for a public transportation project in Wasilla; $450,000 for an agricultural processing facility in Wasilla in 2002; In 2002, $1 million for an "emergency communications center" in Wasilla that local law enforcement said was redundant and confusing.

As Governor:  read more »