From 538.com, Nate Silver - you may remember him as poblano on Daily Kos - is cautiously confident of Democratic victory in the 20th District. The special election to fill Kirsten Gillibrand's House seat pitted Tedisco against Democrat Scott Murphy, who is presently ahead by the thinnest of hairs.

Although Republican candidate Jim Tedisco is leaving no stone unturned in the special election in New York's 20th Congressional District -- including objecting to the ballot of Kirsten Gillibrand, the woman whom he hopes to replace in the Congress -- the results tallied so far suggest that he is bound for defeat.

So far, according to results released (.pdf) by the New York Secretary of State, Democrat Scott Murphy has received 53.0% percent of the 1,870 the absentee ballots thus far counted by election officials. This translates to a net gain of 112 votes, enough to put him 47 votes ahead of Tedisco once Election Day results -- adjusted to reflect the state's re-canvassing -- are added back into the total.

Notably missing from the absentee count so far is Saratoga County, where Tedisco racked up his largest margin over Murphy on Election Night. Will Tedisco gain enough votes from Saratoga to overtake Murphy?

Well, he might - if Saratoga were the only county with absentee ballots outstanding. But there are plenty of votes still to be counted in Murphy's stronger areas too. Only about 16 percent of absentee ballots have been counted in Coumbia County, only 12 percent in Warren County, and none at all in Washington County. Murphy won between 55.8 and 56.6 percent of the vote in each of these counties on Election Day.

This isn't in the bag yet, but we have room for some cautious optimism.