Early gloating is uniformly bad luck. Bad bad bad, don't do it.

But here goes. Facing collapsing poll numbers, intense media scrutiny of his stance on the stimulus, now Assemblyman Tedisco, who is running to replace Gillibrand in the 20th, is losing the money race.

Democrat Scott Murphy has raised about $60,000 more than Republican Jim Tedisco. He raised $899,161 within the reporting period, Jan. 1 to March 11. Tedisco raised $836,612 during the same time frame.

Murphy's $250,000 loan to his campaign puts him over $1 million. Tedisco loaned $200,000 to his campaign, bringing the gap between the campaigns to about $10,000.

Polling in the district, including an internal NRCC poll, show the Democrat either in a dead heat or ahead. Tedisco's recently announced opposition to the President's stimulus plan should hurt him as well, given the economic stress in that part of the state. If we hold this seat, it will be a political earthquake, and the first head on a platter will be that of Michael Steele, the RNC chairman.