Tell us WHY you think Obama will win in Iowa...I happen to think you're correct, and I've given my reasons over at Blogs for Victory...how did your political crystal ball arrive at this conclusion? You don't need to reveal any internal polling or any insider dope you've heard...outside of such nuts and bolts elements, there also has to be an over-arching theory behind your prediction...what is it?

OPRAH WINFREY brings it home for Barack Obama in Iowa.

Oprah is going to Iowa, and that will help Obama's campaign.

In addition, Iowa Democratic caucus goers tend to be a mix of liberal views and hardheaded evaluations. They don't particularly care for Clinton, and they've already danced with Edwards. Richardson, Biden and Dodd haven't been there enough, and Gravel and Kucinich are a bit too "out there" for the voters.

That leaves Obama, who just happens to fit their views pretty well, and is also doing well enough in the polls to be considered viable.

The big question will be whether he can translate an Iowa victory into a real surge -- the kind that overcomes a 20-point (though fading slowly) Clinton lead nationwide. My guess is that the Clinton campaign will do what Clinton campaigns did in the 90s -- get enough votes to win, and not worry about the rest.

But it'll be fun to watch ... for about a month, when it'll be all over.

Well, it's nearly neck and neck in Iowa...Hillary, John and Barack. The idea that Iowans will buck with the conventional wisdom that the nomination is Hillary's for the taking is appealing. And why not think that? I mean, after all, look at 2004, everyone said that Howard Dean was an unstoppable freight train to the nomination, but then Iowans caucused and said "not so fast governor." Then came the scream and, well, we know what happened next. But Is Barack like John Kerry? I think not.

Your theory will only work if Barack has made a case study of the campaign of Howard Dean and does not make the same mistakes in Iowa that Howard did. Because, Howard, although he was the front runner in 2004, was a candidate much more like Barack than Hillary. And he majorly screwed up in Iowa. It wasn't just the scream that killed him—that was after the caucus where he came in third. It was poor organizing on the ground. He had more volunteers in Iowa than every other campaign combined. He had more grassroots support than all the other candidates combined. On top of that, he had more money than the other candidates. Well, what happened in Iowa? Well, lots has been written on the topic, but a lot of people feel that the young hip enthusiastic Deaniacs were actually a turn-off to the regular caucus goers. Who did they go for? Not the upstart anti-war candidate beloved by the left, with young, enthusiastic volunteers, but the establishment candidate who voted for the war, but who they thought was "electable."

I'm not sure how Barack doesn't go down the same road that Howard did.

This is a very interesting prediction. Of course, what you say contradicts most conventional analysis of the outcome of the caucus, as most pundits in both camps have Clinton's superior resources pulling her ahead. But of course, things may always change in these things, especially if you're privy to some nugget of information the rest of us aren't.

I actually like Obama quite a bit. I think he would make a great candidate, just on the basis of his charisma and his policy. However, as you mentioned, race undoubtedly will play a role. As sad as this truth is in this time and age, one needs to only look at the fate of Harold Ford in TN to see a prelude to what an election featuring a black presidential candidate will feature. A lot of it would be subtle, of course. But we all know it will be there.
On top of that, the man's middle name is Hussein after all.

So, as much as many of us belonging to a progressive ideology would want Hillary knocked out, we have to be careful what we wish for.

That said, as you mentioned, an Obama victory in Iowa doesn't guarantee him the nomination. It would make things quite interesting by any measure though.

Obama can win and I think he might, particularly if he gets half of neighboring Illinois to come over the border and do get out the vote for him. But do not underestimate Team Hillary's operation, because they are so well connected to the party heirarchy and caucuses are an insiders game, not an outsiders game. Dean had a huge ground operation in Iowa four years ago, one that dwarfed the other candidates and was red hot in December, and he still lost. The candidate that won was the "insiders" candidate, with the party connections, and that was John Kerry.

Another thing is that lurking behind the scenes is Bill Clinton. If Hillary thinks she is going to lose Iowa, she will unleash him in a big way and he is the most popular figure in the party. The value of Bill Clinton's presence at pre-caucus rallies and at the larger caucus sites cannot be underestimated.