Venezuela is one of Bush's favorite bugbears. I am surprised we haven't heard some form of domino theory focused on Venezuela and Bolivia as the new Vietnam and Laos in the war against Communism justifying invasions. Maybe the fact that practically every major South American nation except Colombia has voted in leftist or left-leaning governments in recent years and we would not be terribly welcome on that continent.

Hugo Chavez is quite intentionally riding a wave of anti-Bush/anti-American sentiment to achieve political power. He may well fit the definition of Demagogue as the Greeks originally envisioned it. I have heard mixed things about him regarding Jews and don't know where the truth lies (and here is one place I wish Gatemouth could give his view, but alas it is not to be). Certainly his tendency to favor anyone who is anti-American, Iran's theocracy included, seems as misguided as the Republican policy of supporting Afghan extremists, including people who became part of al-Qaeda, against the Soviets, Saddam Hussein against Iran, and any petty dictator who gives us lip service against anyone we don't like.

But there are things we don't hear about Venezuela that tell a different story from what Bush tells us.

Venezuela has had several elections, including a no-confidence vote against Chavez, in Venezuela since Chavez won the presidency. Chavez and his supporters have been gaining in support as time goes by and each and every election has been declared fair by every respectable international agency that has monitored them. I have heard no credible claims of election fraud.

I have heard some accusations of censorship and met a man who seems to feel he is a victim of such censorship. I cannot judge that. But it is clear that Venezuela does have an active opposition that seems to operate without the kind of oppression we see in places like Colombia or in Chile under Pinochet or Peru under Fujimori, people we LIKED and supported. Venezuela seems at least as democratic and free as the majority of nations that America has actively supported.

The latest surprise to me is a genuine surprise. Chavez is unabashedly leftist, and even when I agree with a leftist government overall, I recognize that such governments make financial markets awfully nervous. Brazil is an exception where a leftist has been able to allay the fears of the markets and, in fact, when it looked like Lula might lose, the Brazilian markets got skittish.

Interestingly, despite the rhetoric, sound and fury on both sides, I discover that the markets greatly favored Venezuela in 2006. Over the last 6 months Venezuelan financial markets did only moderately well, beating out Argentina and Brazil and almost matching Chile, but being soundly beaten by the markets of Peru and Mexico. But over the last 12 months (ending 10/11/06, according to RIMES Online using MSCI indicies and as reported to me by T. Rowe Price) Venezuela's market beat them all with a whopping 81.84% increase. Peru (another leftist government, though not as far left as Chavez) came in second with a 64.44% increase.

I am more than willing to believe that Chavez is a demagogue. Maybe even an anti-Semite (though I have not heard this from an unbiased source yet) and certainly he is almost as willing to make friends with dictators and extremists as Republicans have been willing to do. But from all I can tell he has been true to democracy and free elections and he does not seem to be ruining his nation economically. From the point of view of his own people, free elections and a good economy sound like he is doing his job pretty damned well.

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