NYC Drifts Right...Upstate Drifts Left?

Well, one upside to the NYC mayoral election is that we now know that you can buy NYC for $74 million and change. Somehow I am reminded of the towns that sell themselves on eBay. I feel like our city has been put on eBay and Bloomberg bid and won. I guess this election is quite a victory for capitalism--we find out that even the nation's largest city has a finite price tag. Good to know should you ever have an extra $74 million to spend.

What has happened to NYC? First off, I think we need to stop blaming our candidates. John Kerry got a lot of flack (still does) for losing in 2004. Al Gore was blamed for 2000 (even though he really won), and the Greens STILL blame Gore. Democrats blame our candidates almost from the start, but I have learned from Mondale on that by and large our candidates are pretty good. They are good people who would do a good job and would be far better than the opponant they lose to (or sometimes win from!). Freddy Ferrer was not ideal, but I learned over the course of the election that he was far better than many give him credit for. And much, MUCH better than the NYC media gave him credit for. Don't blame Ferrer, because our candidates are, first of all, CHOSEN by ballot and second of all are ours to make or break to some degree. People who deride "The Democrats" for "Picking" the wrong candidate ignore the fact that "The Democrats" includes all of us and the candidates aren't "picked" but are ELECTED. Ferrer won the primary. Period. He was the elected candidate of our party. Blame the Democratic voters, if you want but not "The Democrats" as if the party is an entity unto itself. What was Ferrer's weakness? Mainly it was his campaign. A campaign is NOT the person. A campaign is run by and organized by others. They are almost a marketing team for the candidate. Ferrer did FINE when he was on his own meeting people on the street. But Ferrer's CAMPAIGN was terrible. Perhaps the worst I have seen. I worked with folks from it and phone calls weren't answered, polling places weren't covered, local groups were left to their own devices. How much of that was organizational, how much was a
dismal lack of money, and how much was media hostility is open to
debate. But the bottom line is, without an excellent campaign, no one
is going to do well against a $74 million media blitz and a media that
is kissing the ass of your opponant. A shoddy campaign against big money is going to fail.

So what is going on in NYC? I am seeing a drift to the right. Wedge issues and a weak local Dem party is opening up the city to Republicans. If the Democratic party doesn't clean itself up (Clarence Norman's conviction should only be the beginning!) and if local Democrats don't get more active, the creeping Republican trend will continue and NYC will no longer be "safely" blue. I see this trend particularly in Brooklyn whre the Jewish vote and the more religious black vote are drifting towards the right because of wedge issues like gay rights. I know Brooklyn better than the other boroughs, so it may be happening there as well, but it is very clear in Brooklyn. We are also seeing a trend where NYC Democrats are becoming more like Republicans with blindly pro-business and pro-development stands and a support of Bloomberg's anti-First Amendment stands that is disturbing.

But what is happening with the rest of the state? If this last election is any indication, New York STATE is drifting left even as NYC is drifting right. NY State gave Democrats many resounding victories. From an article from the NY State Democratic Committee:

Resounding victories include Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany, Binghamton mayor’s races; Brookhaven upset; Gentile, Lappin, Garodnick, Vacca in NYC; Ulster, Nassau, Suffolk legislatures; Saratoga sweep; Erie County Comptroller surprise...

Following the national trend that saw Democrats affirmed throughout the country, the New York State Democratic Party enjoyed a virtual sweep last night of all major races in the state, sending a clear sign that the Democratic Party in New York is stronger than ever. Democrats swept every major upstate Mayor’s race, every competitive New York City council race, and key legislatures and upsets throughout the state.

Beware NYC Democrats! Shape up or find yourselves marginalized by a very savvy, very determined Republican party. NYC Democrats are being shown up by our NY State counterparts.


mole333's picture

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Bouldin's picture

Some points

Good Morning, Mole333!

I've arrived at a somewhat different analysis and outcome than you have, as follows:

I don't think the 2005 election was indicative of a rightward or pro-R trend; for example, we over at NDM looked at three city council races in traditional R strongholds, and all of our candidates won by larger margins than four years ago, even though one of them, Jessica lappin, was a newcomer. If we had lost those races, I would have been concerned as well, but we won them handily against attractive and well-funded opponents. I am absolutely not a friend of happy talk, but the totality of Tuesday's outcome does not, to me, indicate a rightward drift.

I tend to agree with you that nominee-bashing is not the best answer to the mayoral outcome, but at the same time, it seems fair to say that Ferrer came into the race with significant baggage that he was not able to shake; the Diallo controversy hurt, as did the resentment among former Green backers over 2001. Ferrer was never ale to shake the impression that he was essentially a legacy hack; whether that's fair or not is beside the point. He was seen as an exponent of the party machine that New Yorkers rejected a long time ago at the mayoral level. Witness the surge in support for Weiner.

I think what the party needs to realize is that the prime motivator for voters at the mayoral level - above and below which there is no erosion of party loyalty, witness Mattera's spectacular flame-out - is the perception of managerial competence. That seems to be the trump card, and it's by no means new. LaGuardia was a republican as well, for example. He was also the one who coined the phrase that 'there is no republican or democratic way to pick up the trash'.

Regarding money, it's worthwhile to note that $300,000,000 was raised by the Democrats in the city last year, while this year, Ferrer managed to raise only $6,000,000, with matching funds. I'd argue that that is still part of the Kerry hangover, because all the Dems are having fundraising issues right now. I think we'll see that improve rapidly as we go into 2006, but for 2005, it was an obvious factor. The same applies to public interest in this race; I've been involved in it since May, and honestly, it was like pulling teeth to get people excited, no matter which campaign it was, which candidate, which office.

As far as the party machine is concerned, the writing is on the wall: you've lost four times in a row. Just showing up is not enough to win anymore. The party machine is calcified, unresponsive, un-democratic - small d - and more focused internally than with reaching out to the city at large. You don't get exciting or visionary candidates from a structure and process that produces a Clarence Norman or Vito Lopez. It's not a surprise that the candidates who really excited people - Siegel, James, Weiner, even Mattera - came from outside the city party structure.

What that is, simply put, is more writing on the wall, and it reads loud and clear for the city party machine: Reform, or perish.


mole333's picture

Some disagreement

Overall I agree with you. NYC Democrats need to decalcify before they will be effective. But, there are other changes going on at least in Brooklyn that bode ill for progressives. The wedge issues are playing well in Brooklyn. If you aren't pro-Ratner, you are seen as anti-union. If you aren't anti-gay you are looked upon askance in the black churches...and being pro-abortion doesn't make you too popular there either. There is a trend in some black churches and among orthodox Jews in particular to buy into the "moral" Republican line and, at least for the latter, to buy into the "pro-Israel" Republican line. Neither is true. Republicans are about as imoral as you get these days, and Dems are better for Israel, as well as for peace in the Mid-East, than are Republicans. But the Republican rhetoric plays more and more in those areas. Maybe Republican corruption will catch up with them. Or maybe finally the Dems will get their act together and counter that rhetoric. But for now, Brooklyn at least is slipping rightward and the Republicans are doing their best to wedge their way in. We need to shore up the left here in NYC lest we find the city outright purple in 5-10 years.


AngryBrownButch's picture

Wedge issues

How do you propose that the Democrats deal with so-called wedge issues? It seems to me that those issues that are dubbed wedge issues tend to be those issues that affect the populations who are most vulnerable to governmentally legislated and societally supported discrimination - like queer people.

I always worry that the solution will be to push these "wedge issues" to the backburner, to distance the Democratic party from these issues as much as possible, thus asking already oppressed people to sacrifice even more for some "greater good" that doesn't really include them.

I would hope that NYC Dems, and Dems in general, would seek to combat homophobia and other attitudes that make these issues so controversial and divisive, rather than caving and pushing aside those folks who are deemed too controversial to have their serious, very real needs attended to.


mole333's picture

No easy answer

I guess one answer I have is it depends on the wedge issue. For example, issues like development, which have been used very effectively to divide labor and progressives, I think can be dealt with by re-establishing a dialog between progressives and labor, finding the common ground and focusing on that. From my understanding of NYC in particular, development issues can be seen from a coalition of labor, neighborhoods and progressives quite effectively if we put our minds to it. The differences among these groups are not as great as the developers and their allies (BLOOMBERG!) like to portray. They often make it seem like if Ratner doesn't get to build whatever he wants there will be no jobs. With a more co-ordianted message, progressives and labor could build a nearly unstoppable coalition. Of course starting the dialog is far harder than one would think.

Other wedge issues, particularly those you bring up, are harder. Personally I see them from a strictly civil libertarian viewpoint-- society should not be in the business of telling people what they should do with their personal lives. I really have never understood anyone who feels threatened just because gay people are in love and want to get married. My solution would be to demand that society treat gays the same as straights--either "marry" both or marry no one and ONLY do civil unions, leaving the "marriage ceremony" (which would then have no legal meaning, merely ceremonial) to the individuals and their friends and family. But I am not running for office. The very sad thing is that many people won't vote for someone who believes all people should be treated respectfully and equally. That means many politicians have to do some kind of careful calculation before they take a stand on such issues. How to deal with those cases?

I don't know. One possibility is to avoid it. That is what worked for Democrats in Montana where they basically put aside abortion and gay rights and just plain ignored the issues. They won by running on other issues and managed to dodge it if it came up. Of course to you, and for that matter to me, that seems cowardly. Another way of dealing with it is what many Democrats have done (I would argue rightly) on the gun issue--embrace the opposing view. I think this IS appropriate for the gun issue because it can be framed as a civil libertarian issue and I personally don't hold ANY civil libertarian stand against a Democrat. But taking that approach for gay rights would be taking the ANTI-civil libertarian view, which I object to. Then there is the strategy of standing up for what you think is right. Some Democrats DO win by standing up for gay rights. But, sadly, in many parts of the nation and in many parts of the city, that may well cost the politician an election.

What do you do when taking the right stand costs you an election? Well, Democrats recognized that voting rights for minorities was the right thing to stand up for. That has led to a major problem for Democrats in the South ever since. It was still the right thing to do. I would argue the same applies for gay rights with one caveat. When Democrats stood up for minority voting rights they did so as the party in power. It may have lost them that power, but the fact that they were in power allowed them to at least accomplish what is right. Now we are not in power. To take the right stand may accomplish nothing because the people in power right now are the ones who most hate what you stand for. Perhaps we should still do it. I know I would respect a politician who stood up for what is right even if it was a losing cause. But I would rather see the Democrats get back in power and THEN put gay rights into effect from that position of power.

I don't know what became of it, but I heard that one Democrat, Chris Owens, faced with opposition from anti-gay black churches because of his strong gay rights stands, had intended to do for gay rights what I propose above for development: start a dialog. He proposed to bring gay black men to discuss gay rights in those churches. I admire the idea especially since it is so much harder to hate someone when you have just sat down and had a wonderful discussion with them. But I don't know if Chris Owens really did propose that or if it ever came off. This came through the rumor mill during another discussion of these same wedge issues. Perhaps a dialog really IS the only way to get society to change from the bottom up. The only other way is for progressives to get in power SOMEHOW and effect changes from the top down. Not sure which approach is tougher!


Bouldin's picture

Common ground

That's a thoughtful question, and I'm not sure that it has only one answer. Full disclosure: I'm gay too, so I have some idea of what you're talking about.

I think what we need to look at first are the areas where there is a broad consensus in society, such as on the need for universal healthcare, better schools, the broad bread and butter issues that win elections. Winning is the crucial requirement, because it paves the way for everything else. In that sense, yes, issues that don't appeal to broad majorities are pushed to the back burner; but as long as they're still on the stove, so to speak, there is room for progress. Meanwhile, with a majority, we can enact things that improve everyone's quality of life. The LGBT community has as big a stake in healthcare as everyone else, for example.

Specifically with regard to LGBT issues, what I tell my friends is usually this: the LGBT movement is very young. Don't expect every wish we may have to be granted tomorrow, because if we've learned one thing from history, it's that social change, for which political change is only a vehicle, takes time - decades or even centuries. I doubt that we'll be waiting that long for full equality, but the fact remains that there is a time factor involved. We've come a long way from Archie Bunker, but it'll be a moment before trans issues, for example, are widely supported. That doesn't mean that people are bad or ignorant; it means that perhaps they haven't thought about the issues, have no opinion, or maybe need some persuasion. Give it time and be prepared to work hard; getting on the front burner requires societal awareness and then consensus.

One thing I'd note specifically with regard to the queer movement is that it has sometimes been less than effective at casting its issues in broader terms and making allies; that's one reason why the Rs are so good at using queer issues as wedges. Nationally, we may be in for a re-run of that in 2006; after all, it worked in 2004.

For you specifically, I'd say that if you want the party to listen to and even act on your issues, go to them first. Waiting to get involved until the Dems are perfect on every single one of your issues is not going to work, alas, if I know anything about them at all.


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