Democratic Presidential Teamups
[UPDATE: Rumor Confirmed...]
Rumor has it that Wes Clark is endorsing Hillary Clinton. To me this was easily predictable. For a long time I saw Wes positioning himself to run. He was acting like a candidate early on. I predicted if he did run it would hurt Hillary because they have overlapping pools of supporters and run in roughly the same political circles.
Then, suddenly Wes Clark stopped acting like a candidate. He quieted down and started to sound more like someone positioning himself for alliances, rather than being the focus of an alliance himself. It struck me that his sudden change in behavior probably meant someone made him an offer...and the someone who seemed most likely to make him an offer was Hillary Clinton.
Now, if the rumor is true, Wes has endorsed Hillary.
What offer would it take to get him to back out and back Hillary? Possibly Sec. of State. But I really think the smart thing would be for Hillary to pick Clark for her running mate. I think a Clinton/Clark ticket would be a strong one and would boost Hillary's chances a great deal.
So prediction #1: if Hillary gets the nomination, Wes is her VP choice.
I feel pretty safe in making that prediction. Interestingly, when I discussed Clark and Clinton as appealing to the same basic pool of supporters, I was attacked by Clark supporters who wanted him to be their progressive savior and couldn't abide seeing him as a centrist. Wonder how they feel now if he does endorse Hillary and does become her VP choice.
My second prediction is a weaker one. I predict if Edwards gets the nomination he might pick Bill Richardson for his VP choice.
Both of these would be powerful teams. I think Edwards/Richardson would be practically unbeatable for many reasons. I think Clinton/Clark would be strong, but not quite as strong. Either way, you would be making history.
I don't have a feel for what Obama would do. I think in his case you might see someone fairly boring and very white chosen. Chris Dodd? Vilsack? Warner? Just shooting in the dark with these. Anyone have thoughts?
The Republican field is very hard to make predictions about because they all suck so badly. One friend suggests that a Romney/Snowe or Romney/Collins team up would be smart for the Republicans because it throws the whole Northeast into play. I would suggest that both Snowe and Collins would be a good Republican choice no matter what. And if they are running against a Clinton/Clark or Edwards/Richardson or Obama/anyone team, then WHOEVER wins it will be making history. In the past Elizabeth Dole was bandied around as a popular choice for Republican VP. Wonder if her low approval as a Senator sours people on her. Plus she is a lousy campaigner. But I suspect she still will be viewed by many Republicans as a good choice for VP. Huckabee/Brownback would be scary but far from impossible. It would be the American Taliban ticket, but probably would get quite a bit of excitement from the Republicans who can't seem to get this religious extremism thing out of their system. I predict Fred Thompson will have a short trajectory...he is likely to crash and burn pretty fast. Though I predicted something similar for Barack Obama early on and was wrong. Obama proved much smarter and a quicker learner than I had given him credit for. Thompson doesn't strike me as being as quick a learner. McCain and Giuliani are likely to get nowhere. I predict NEITHER will be on the final ticket.
How about some fantasy third party runs. And before anyone says anything, NO. Bloomberg is NOT running. I predict he is setting himself up for a Cabinet position WHOEVER wins. But what about Ron Paul running third party? Unlikely but... How about Ron Paul/Jesse Ventura? The crazy but entertaining ticket. How about Giuliani running as a Third Party candidate? His ego is big enough and he isn't a mainstream Republican. I consider it a possibility depending on who the Repub candidate is. But probably not.
Of course Nader will run...again. Tiresome as ever. He is so marginalized by now that it doesn't really matter. But how about if he and Ron Paul make a run together? The "Extremes Meet" ticket? Nader/Giuliani, the "Egos the Size of Texas" ticket. Any other suggestions? Some idiot on Daily Kos urges a Ron Paul/Dennis Kucinich match up, but that strikes me as pretty unlikely, to put it mildly. Plus I don't think Kucinich is that stupid. He isn't a Nader. He is more like a Howard Dean, trying to shake things up within the party.
Anyway, although the election seems so far away, it isn't. Petitioning to get the candidates on the ballot in New York starts THIS November. So my local Democratic Club is having their endorsement meeting THIS October. The 2008 election season is happening now thanks to all the early primaries.
Thoughts and ramblings?
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election 2008 | Presidential primaries | Vice President
Endorsement meeting
Submitted by sidnora on 16 September 2007 - 12:51pm.
is next month? Holy sh*t! I better stop being undecided and start thinking hard about this.
Personally, I think Obama/Dodd would be an excellent ticket, though probably not to the taste of many Obama fans elsewhere in the country (like where he's running third in Republican polls). I like Dodd a lot, but he's way too liberal and outspoken for those folks' comfort. I can't quite figure out why he's not taken more seriously, because I'd have an easy time supporting him for President.
If he wins the nomination, I expect Obama to choose someone to reassure indies and crossovers, very white and very moderate, like Vilsack or Bayh, or maybe Pryor, for geographic balance? Not Dodd.
Agreed
Submitted by mole333 on 16 September 2007 - 12:57pm.
I think people like Pryor, Warner or Vilsack would make good choices for Obama as a running mate. Dodd just struck me as a nice choice from my own view, not necessarily for good balancing of the ticket.
Yep...IND's endorsement meeting is in October. We are trying to get campaigns coming to plug their candidates this month and next month.
runningmates
Submitted by Something Wicked This Way Comes (not verified) on 16 September 2007 - 4:05pm.
Blah Hillary blah Clarke blah blah blah.
Bla Hillary blah Obama, blah Corzine. Blah resume blah U.S. Senator blah blah blah runningmate.
Ted Strickland, blah blah blah.
Blah Brian Schweitzer, blah blah blah Clinton Administration (blah blah blah).
This bit of pointless speculation brought to you by Richard Wallner, also known as the father of the Obama-Schumer ticket. Richard Wallner is banned at Daily Gotham and persists in trolling this site, much to our amusement.
VICE PRESIDENT CHOICES
Submitted by ROSALIE907 on 16 September 2007 - 11:31pm.
First, Hillary won't choose Corzine since NJ is too close to NY. I see her selecting someone from the south, probably the Bible Belt, but not Arkansas or maybe even Richardson to woo the Hispanic vote. Early on I thought she'd select Obama but Obama's remarks makes that impossble. Biden I see as Secretary of State and Clark in Defense.
Clark
Submitted by mole333 on 17 September 2007 - 7:20am.
I will stick with my prediction of Clark for VP. First off, Hillary isn't much of a draw in Arkansas...Clark will be. Second, I think much of this is image and deals, not necessarily the usual calculations.
Image: Hillary wants to counter any "weak woman" image the Repubs throw at her. She does this both by taking something of a Thatcher demeanor, but can also do it by taking on a military man as her running partner. Clark comlpements her image better than anyone else. It is a good choice from this point of view, appealing to many who would hesitate to support her. He appeals precisely to the voters in the areas her campaign most wants to appeal to: white, blue-collar male voters in OH, PA, MO and MI.
Deal: Had Wes Clark thrown his own hat in the ring, he would have been directly competing with Hillary for donors and some supporters. Clark also is still not well enough known to have a good shot on his own. But with VP spot he will be set for his own run, particularly with the large donors Hillary can bring. It is an obvious deal for both of them to make.
Corzine, of course, makes no sense. Never happen. Richardson is unlikely. Their styles are too different and Richardson's draw is as the statesman. She doesn't want that as a partner. She wants a soldier or tough guy. There are many who could fit the bill, of course. Montana's Gov could be a real interesting choice. But I do think a deal was made.
Clark can't
Submitted by sidnora on 18 September 2007 - 4:34pm.
be SecDef for another two years after the election. He's barred from the post until ten years have passed since he retired from the military. So, unless Clinton has it in mind to park him in some other cabinet post until he's eligible for Defense, which I doubt, mole's hypothesis is most likely. He also still has a very dedicated group of supporters from 04, nearly all of whom he'd be able to deliver to Clinton.
Though I have heard a few Clark groupies very upset at this alliance - they're not HRC fans, and they seem to have forgotten, or repressed, his former close association with the Clintons.
I'm not sure she'd pick Biden for State, and I'm not sure I'd want her to. There are others whose names have long been mentioned for State in a Clinton cabinet, notably Richard Holbrooke. Biden does have his recurrent foot-in-mouth problem, which could be a real liability in the nation's foremost diplomat, and he's also quite valuable where he is now, as Chairman of Foreign Relations.
If we elect a Democrat next year, I hope they're somewhat careful about trolling Congress for Cabinet talent. Even assuming we'll pick up seats in both houses, we need to keep some of that experience and smarts to stay in Congress if there's any hope for them to be ore effective than they are now.
Why does Corzine make no sense?
Submitted by Something Wicked This Way Comes (not verified) on 17 September 2007 - 2:00pm.
Zap. Go away, Wallner.
More than a rumor.
It was announced this morning. See Talk Left .