UPDATED AT BOTTOM

There has been much speculation as to who Vito Lopez, head of the corrupt Democratic Party machine in Brooklyn, would back for surrogate judge this year. For those who don't know him, Vito Lopez was the choice to succeed Clarence Norman as head of the Brooklyn Democratic Party after Norman was convicted of corruption and sent to jail. Lopez was not an outsider during Norman's corrupt tenure, nor is he free of corruption himself, as I wrote about some time ago (see a run down of Loepz's most obvious corruption here).

Now Vito Lopez, our Corrupt Leader, has decided to weigh in on the Surrogate race.

You can see my earlier coverage of this race here (good run down of the race and its main candidates), here (my pseronal endorsement), here (CBID endorsement meeting), and here (IND endorsement meeting). Up until now there was some speculation that Miller was Vito's man, based largely on Miller's past connections to the machine and some state-level backing. This largely came down to one newspaper article that was viewed as definitive but really was premature. Then there was some speculation that as Diana Johnson's campaign picked up momentum and she was emerging as the likely candidate to win, she would pick up Vito's nod. She also once had machine connections, but from what I hear her relationship with Vito has soured...if it ever was as close as it seemed. And I heard some speculation that Beitner might convince Vito he would have a chance. All of this has proven to be mere rumor and Vito pulls another candidate out of thin air.

Vito Lopez has endorsed Shawndya Simpson for Brooklyn's surrogate judge. Simpson is another person with previous links to the corrupt machine from the (now convicted) Clarence Norman days. Now that Johnson has picked up the endorsements of most of the reform movement in Brooklyn, including Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats and Independent Neighborhood Democrats, District Leaders Alan Fleishman and Jo Anne Simon, and local elected Joan Millman and progressive darling Chris Owens, it seems she has become too distanced from Vito's corruption for Vito's tastes. So Vito has decided to flex his muscle, with Simpson as his choice to oppose reform.

UPDATE ON THE UPDATE: So, there are two things that could completely negate my commentary below. If either happens, then my fitting together of various pieces of information may have looked good, but ended up complete BS. One of those things is Beitner dropping out. The other one is Vito actually getting the machine behind Simpson. I am now hearing BOTH are happening, making my commentary below DOUBLY full of shit.

To date I had every indication that Vito, despite personally endorsing Simpson, was not making it a full scale effort. Given who he is and how he works, that made no sense. Yet it fit with those theories that indicated he and Beitner were cutting a deal. Vito doesn't have to win up front to win...those in the know just have to know he pulled the strings.

But increasingly it is looking like Vito IS pulling in his closest allies to back Simpson. That pretty much throws off all my calculating. Add to that the fact that Beitner may yet pull out and all I write below is bunk. I leave it for posterity, though.

And, there is ONE thing I wrote below that does bear keeping in mind. KEEP WATCHING who gets some court appointments in the near future. That will tell us who in all this was being given offers and who simply tried and failed.

So the race is rapidly narrowing to Johnson vs. Simpson with reformers supporting the former and the machine supporting the latter...which was not a line up I would have originally predicted.

UPDATE (what is below seems inacurate but I leave it up to show how convoluted this all becomes): One thing I love about writing about Brooklyn politics, is each article I write leads to a flood of emails and phone calls from my various connections adding their insight and/or spin. Corrections, variations and sometimes outright contradictions flow into my inbox. It's kind of fun...but it also takes up time!

The Surrogate race has been one where many, many sources want to give me their little piece of the picture. The difficulty is fitting it all together. Vito Lopez has been sitting uncharacteristically quietly like a spider in the middle of his web, waiting for the right time to strike. A general impression was being emitted from the machine that Vito might sit it out this year, though one particularly astute, if not always appealing, elected at IND laughed at this idea.

Was Vito going to support Miller? Miller was a past ally of the machine when it came to defense funds, never really supported by the machine when it came to elections, but seemingly getting some Spitzer backing this time around, or so the rumors went. No support for Miller materialized.

Was Vito going to support Johnson? She was a past ally of the machine, though with something of a stormy relationship...now on the outs with Vito. The numbers seemed to be stacking up for Johnson, which made Vito's backing more likely, some would argue.

Would Vito pull a new candidate out of his ass to show EVERYONE he was still in control? That SEEMS to be his present strategy as he endorses Simpson.

But...

Just before Simpson was magically produced, there were some whispers that Beitner, in addition to counting on solid Orthodox Jewish support, was cutting a deal with Vito. This fit to me. Beitner has ties way back to corruption in the Surrogate office having worked for the first Surrogate seat during the infamous Michael Feinberg tenure that ended in disgrace and scandal. Beitner knows how to play games. And I KNOW Vito wants to strengthen his ties to the Orthodox neighborhoods as he slowly purges the machine of its previous strong links in the black community. Vito has no real interest in the black community, so why not throw them to the dogs and strengthen ties to one of the most consistent voting blocs in the city: Orthodox Jews?

That was the reasoning up until Vito picked Simpson. So what's up? And why is Vito going it alone with Simpson. He isn't bending all and sundry in the machine and peripheral to the machine to get Simpson elected.

Here are two questions: will Miller and Simpson get Supreme Court appointments? Because that is the hypothesized reward they are being offered to play a very convoluted strategy.

Johnson is on the outs with Vito these days. Yet she is the clear favorite to win about now. This is what probably galls Vito the most. Johnson's machine ties go back to Norman, and she was only an ally of Vito's when it came down to Johnson vs. Margharita Lopez Torres, someone Vito detests even more than he dislikes Johnson. Plus Vito is doing his best to cover up all ties he had to Norman's version of the machine, so dropping people like Diana Johnson is becoming par for the course...after all, they're only black. But to sabatoge Johnson he needs to have a unified white vote and a split black vote...a strategy Brooklyn is well familiar with, though from time to time you get a reverse of this.

Bernie Graham was a no starter...so much for Marty Markowitz flexing his muscles. Seems like he hasn't GOT much muscle when it comes to judicial races. But Miller was a contender. Vito threw Miller under the wheels while, or so I hear from several quite disparate sources, talking to Beitner. Will Miller get a supreme court seat as a reward? Miller claims he doesn't play such games. He doesn't like me writing about his past flirtations with the machine and likes to show how he doesn't get rewarded for running defense funds for people like Clarence Norman. If he gets thrown under the wheels with no reward, then it sure looks like he had better just stop flirting with criminals because it isn't working for him. If he doesn't get rewarded, will he have some dirt to tell on Vito and will he be pissed enough to tell it? If he does get a supreme court seat, it would go along with what my sources say: Vito wants the way cleared for Beitner.

And what about Simpson? Well, now there are two black candidates. Rumor has it Vito doesn't want Simpson to win (evidence being he isn't working to line up much support for her, merely throwing her into the ring with his personal blessing) but does want her drawing votes from Johnson.

All this too convoluted for you? Well welcome to Brooklyn under Vito Lopez. There was no way in hell Vito was going to sit this out. Miller seemed like a match for Vito for awhile, largely because it seemed the State party was ready to get behind him. But as Johnson's star has risen and Miller's fallen perhaps surprisingly fast, Beitner increasingly seemed the better fit with Vito in my mind. Both lean conservative. Both have shady pasts particularly regarding the judiciary. I know Vito wants to shift the machine base away from the black community and more towards the Orthodox community. And the info I have been getting from several different ends of this make a lot more sense together if this is his strategy.

The main question is, will Miller and Simpson get their rewards for playing along or not? And the main conclusion is, as long as there is a corrupt machine, even potentially good judges are going to find themselves drawn into the cesspool that is Brooklyn machine politics. But the lesson for those potentially good judges is, pay attention. More often than not, it is the scummiest (or is that sleaziest) that rises to the top.

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