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On Gillibrand's appointment to the US Senate : "This one's gonna hurt"
From the source that tipped me off about Gillibrand's appointment, here's a few quick stats about the potential electoral world of fundraising pain that would occur if Gillebrand vacates her post at CD-20 :
- 2004 : Bush wins the district with 54% of the vote
- 2006: Rep. Gillibrand wins the seat from Rep. John Sweeney (53%-47%) in a close race and only after Sweeney's record of domestic violence was "leaked" to the media
- 2008: In what some describe as the most expensive Congressional race in the nation, Gillibrand beat Sandy Treadwell 62%-38% after both candidates spent a combined $9.2 million.
What do you think? Is it going to be difficult to get another Democrat in that district? Does it matter?
http://dailygotham.com/blog/liza_sabater/on_gillibrands_appointment_to_the_us_senate_this_ones_gonna_hurt
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In a special election
this is going to be a very hard seat to hold on to. That race will be expensive and require seriously energetic leadership from the Governor and the Senator-Designate.
Paterson's excuse
is likely to be that NY will be losing a seat in 2010, and somehow he's going to make it be this one. I'm not holding my breath waiting to see that happen.
Much as I'd have preferred a different choice (Louise Slaughter), I'm going to cut Gillibrand some slack to start with and see what she does. If she doesn't start acting like she represents the whole state, including NYC, there will be no shortage of downstaters eager to primary her in 2010. McCarthy's already declared, based solely on Gillibrand's gun control position (or lack thereof); others who I'd think were likely include Suozzi, Cuomo, and Weiner, depending on what happens to him next year.
I have a hunch that if any of them choose to do it, they'll find her a more daunting adversary than they take her for today. Just a gut feeling, but she strikes me as someone who knows how to play this game, and a very effective fundraiser. Given a year to solidify her position, she may turn into a formidable opponent. In the meantime, she sure seems to know whose good opinions she needs to court. Gay marriage, huh? I wonder how that would have played up in the 20th.