With the 2008 presidential race in full swing and Congress adjourned for its summer recess - activists in New York and around the country will use the dog days of August to “inspect the flesh” as they say in horse racing. In short, asking the question - should we bet (i.e., donate) cold cash on this race or not?

The first race on the card is New York’s 29th Congressional District. For those who don’t know – and in the blog community this will be a small pool – it will be a rematch of 2006 when Eric Massa ran against first term incumbent Randy Kuhl. Randy, or as he is affectionately known in political circles “shotgun Randy,” has had a bulls eye on his back since 2004 when he beat political neophyte Samara Barand.

In short, Randy is probably one of the worst of the kool-aid gulping Bush acolytes in Congress. He is wrong on so many issues that the Daily Gotham would need to buy an extra page on the internet to list them all here. That said Eric was still unable to unseat him in one of the biggest congressional tidal waves since 1974.

Nevertheless, this is a new election cycle and everyone deserves a fresh look, but before everyone loads up the family and “moves to Beverly, Hills that is” – well, Corning in this case, let’s see if it’s worth the gas. That is, has the dynamic changed in this race and has Eric changed as a candidate?

Let’s start with the dynamics. As noted above, 2006 was a “banner” year for Democrats as they seized the day and played offense – except in New York where the state senate Democratic leadership told us that we were on defense (oops, that’s another posting) nationwide.

This time around the Democrats are in the majority and on defense – seeking to hold their newly acquired power. Nevertheless, political insiders think that 2008 may be a year when Democrats increase their advantage – perhaps as much as 20 seats. Of course, this was before Congressional Democrats caved and displayed their spineless nature in a late night get out of town vote to erode our already diminished civil liberties (i.e., wireless eavesdropping) under the most inept and power hungry administration in the last century.

While this may adversely affect some purple districts across the country, it may work to shotgun Randy’s advantage come November of next year, as the 29th is in the heart of “red” upstate New York. Indeed, the dynamics may not be fully known until the nominees for president are set next spring.

Specifically, if Hillary garners the Democratic nod there could be a mini-wave as support for our home senator brings out the base. Conversely, this could be mitigated or even outdone by a Guiliani nomination on the other side, especially in the heavily Republican 29th. For now, let’s call it even as Democrats continue to target shotgun Randy and Karl Rove and his minions seek to support one of the weakest links in their chain.

This leads to the candidates – shotgun Randy continues to be, well, shotgun Randy, enough said. What about Eric? In 2006 he burst onto the scene in a fit of rage and hyperbole not seen in quite some time. His passion was his best and worst attribute at the same time. That is, Eric enunciated much of the pent up anger that many activists harbored against “dumbya” and the feckless Democrats in Washington.

This passion enflamed and motivated activists and at the same time annoyed and angered many in the Washington establishment. In particular, Eric went out of his way – both publicly and privately – to stick his finger in the eye of Rahm Emmanuel and the DCCC.

In case you haven’t seen it – load up the VCR and watch the movie “Taking the Hill,” a documentary chronicling the campaigns of several veterans running for Congress last cycle. Note the scene where Eric is riding in his car – after an encounter with Rahm at a campaign stop – with former Senator Max Cleland as he says to Eric, “[ ]k” Rahm! and Eric nods his approval from the back seat.

For those unfamiliar with Rahm this kind of discourse does not go over well – to say the least. There were also other outbursts where Eric displayed his displeasure with Rahm – including a public incident at a briefing in Washington. This probably explains why the DCCC conspicuously “sat on their hands” (i.e, didn’t pump in the resources [“money”]) for this race and sought out David Nachbar to primary Eric, both in ’06 and’08.

As to the issue of money – this was Eric’s achilles heel in ’06 and the basis for Rahm’s displeasure with the campaign. That is, while Eric constantly carped and complained about money, he never seemed to accept the fact that he had to raise it – despite his assertions of working at it all the time. Specifically, Eric held exactly one or possibly, but not more than two fundraisers in all of ’05. Even when he did get started in ’06 he never seemed to figure out how to hit major league pitching.

Indeed, most of the $1.4 million Eric did raise came in the latter stages of the race when money was pouring in to every Democratic candidate as part of the tidal wave. Moreover, Eric has been making a point since the beginning of this year that the DCCC set a goal for him of $300K by June 30, as a pre-requisite for their support - this is the standard benchmark for most candidates across the country. By June 30 Eric was over $100K short - not a very auspicious result for a man who raised $1.4 mil. in ’06.

Putting this aside, Eric has lingering problems from his last run - specifically, an on-going legal battle with his former campaign manager that is playing out here in New York County Supreme Court. The allegations are not pretty and have attracted the attention of the RNC and shotgun Randy. While the airing of shotgun Randy’s legal woes (i.e., divorce) helped to torpedo the campaign of Samara Barand in ’04, it is not certain that the Republicans will not use this suit to their advantage come November of next year.

All in all, Eric is a mixed bag – his passion is compelling if not overzealous and factually incorrect at times, his fundraising ability suspect and the “real” support of the DCCC unknown. Indeed, do not be fooled by rumors or assertions of their support until the money is in Eric’s account – then and only then is their support known. On the other hand, shotgun Randy is an incredibly ripe target for the taking and one that is hard to ignore or forego.

If you were at the betting window with a limited bankroll – it might be best to look at the rest of the card before plunking down a big chunk on the 29th right now.

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