The state party still doesn't get it

Despite receiving the endorsement from Democracy for America, Jimmy Dahroug still doesn't seem to resonate with the state's Democratic Party leaders.

We've been through this before. A couple of months ago, a NY Times article listed Republican-turned-Democrat Christopher Bodkin as Caesar Trunzo's main Democratic opponent, and didn't even mention Dahroug. After seemingly solving that potential fiasco, it appears the state Dems are at it again. This time, they're back to looking at Brookhaven Supervisor Brian Foley.

Why? The answer is the usual answer to that question: Money. Foley has a lot in reserve, while Dahroug, despite raising a lot more than he ever has before, is still lagging behind Trunzo.

Of course, if the so-called "leaders" would stop looking like idiots and bother to look at the whole picture, they'd see that Dahroug is an excellent bet to win this time. In 2006, he had to fend off a primary challenge from David Ochoa (who contributed $1,000 to Trunzo two years earlier) and Ricardo Montano. This time, if Foley gets the party backing, Montano will probably run again as well, meaning yet another three-way primary that will drain resources and probably wreck our chance of winning.

Meanwhile, a look at all the numbers shows that Dahroug can easily overcome the 9-point deficit from last time. 2.3% comes from not having David Ochoa on the ballot in November. 4% comes from getting "line A" since there is a Democratic Governor. The rest comes from demographic shifts -- Democrats have been gaining in registration numbers, while Republicans are losing ground.

That doesn't even take into account the fact that Dahroug will have more money to begin with, more money spent in the district by the party, and if he gets the state party backing he'll have a clear shot at Trunzo.

Yup, we can win this one, if only the state party "leaders" take their heads out of their rear ends and look at the entire situation. Otherwise, our best chance to get one of the two seats we need will probably fall by the wayside.

Dan Jacoby's picture

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Gothanonymous Reader's picture

It is a communist conspiracy!

That state senate seat is supposed to go to Jimmy Dahroug by divine right! He is the chosen one! Any state party manipulations to deny Jimmy his destiny is a nothing less than a communist conspiracy. Off with their heads!

Dan Jacoby's picture

It's "electability"

The numbers show that Jimmy Dahroug is electable; nobody else has shown that potential. If the state party had gotten behind Jimmy in 2006 instead of being blinded by the glow of money that never materialized, he might be in the Senate now, and we'd have a majority (we would have gotten that majority with Aubertine's victory, and kept it after Spitzer's resignation).

There is no divine right here; if there were, I'd insist that Jimmy opened up this district in 2004 and therefore "deserves" the "right" to get the seat. I don't, because I don't believe that. The problem is that the state party leaders don't seem to get it, and it's extremely frustrating when we need two seats -- and could win those two seats -- but the people in charge of leading the fight steadfastly refuse to adopt a winning strategy.

Steve Perez's picture

what fantasy numbers are these?

The numbers show that Jimmy Dahroug is electable; nobody else has shown that potential.

Oh come on. Are you really so unfamiliar with the district? Dahroug ran 10 points behind Kerry - and you think no one else could have matched that?

Dahroug's demonstrated inability to keep the votes at the top of the ticket is why people don't think he can win. Instead of pretending like that problem isn't there, maybe you have some sort of argument to make about what Dahroug will do differently this time.

Gothanonymous Reader's picture

Unfair

Foley is not Chris Bodkin; he's a lifelong Democrat with a history of victory after victory in difficult turf. If electablity is the criteria, then on paper it would be hard to find a stronger candidate than Foley, and the fact that he has money in the bank only adds credence to this argument. Foley isn't Jack Davis, who has the bucks, but has shown twice he can't win. In this case, the guy who's had the history of defeats is the one with less money.

And, if prior meritorious public service is the criteria, as it seems to be for you in Ridgewood, then Foley still wins.

Can't say Foley wins on the issues, but better an imperfect Deocrat winning than a perfect one losing. Isn't that the real lesson of Aubertine?.

Dan Jacoby's picture

The problem with a Foley campaign

First of all, the above comments on Foley are basically accurate. That being said, there are two other factors.

First, the Aubertine analogy is suspect, since there was no way to win that district with anyone other then Aubertine. The 3rd district is a different matter.

Second, if Foley does not run, the chances are Dahroug will have a primary-free campaign. If Foley enters the race, published reports indicate that Ricardo Montano will probably also run, making a three-way primary from which the winner will emerge severely short of funds and limping from what will surely be a very difficult primary race.

The problem for the state party is that the Dahroug campaign isn't so much about Jimmy Dahroug, it's about getting true progressives elected. The concept that it's not enough to have 32 Democratic butts in the seats is foreign to party leaders. As a result, the usual methods of "buying off" candidates they would rather not have in the race won't work here. (Note: At least one inquiry was made to see if there were a way to "buy off" Jimmy Dahroug; it amounted to nothing.)

Once again, I return to the claim that the best chance Democrats have of winning the seat is to back Jimmy Dahroug, and the faster party leaders come to that conclusion the better.

Gothanonymous Reader's picture

That was refreshing.

No gratuitous bashing of a decent Democrat (which Foley surely is). I had to re-check to make sure I was at the right website. You're a good man Dan Jacoby. Let's hope that if there is a primary, it can be fought on such terms.

But we obviously disagree. On the one hand, you say the seat is so winnable, that we can take chances and elect the more progressive guy with less money and a less solid track record (both substabtively and electorally); then you go on to warn of the impending disaster of Republican victory if we don't. While not quite Baldeo/Tilzer style "pick me or I'll shoot this dog" (this dog being any chance of Democratic victory) blackmail, it seems to insinuate something perilously close to the neighborhood of that argument.

Btw, the "buying off" accusation is perilously close to an accusation of a felony. I'm sure if something like that occurred, it could not have been made in terms that blatant. Nonetheless, if Dahroug did chose to sit this one out a lot of people would owe him big, and some might even remember that the kid made a selfless sacrifice. It really works sometimes. Ask Mole if he doesn't have a friend in a similar position. Or, even better, ask Andrew Cuomo.

mole333's picture

Not really

First off, this site is really never about gratuitous Dem bashing. Far from it. If we criticize people who support unqualified homophobes for judicial posts, Democrat-come-lately Republican candidates, or people who take developer promises as if they are written in stone, well I think we have usually been right in our criticisms.

Second, as to people remembering a selfless sacrifice, I have yet to see that ever working to anyone's benefit. In fact, at least in Brooklyn politics, I have to date seen verbal promises to be worth every bit of paper they are written on. I have yet to see anyone recognize a selfless sacrifice and go on to support the selfless candidate later on. Perhaps I will one day be surprised when this happens, but in general I see the selfless candidate get screwed over.

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