The new Siena Poll is out, and it has very happy news for Democrats in particular and New Yorkers in general: a Democratic takeover of the Senate is likely.

Democratic incumbents first elected in 2007, Craig Johnson (SD-7, D 49%, R 25%) and Darrel Aubertine (SD-48, D 51%, R 31%) have comfortable leads over their republican challengers.

Three republican incumbents have leads or are tied with their Democratic challengers, but, in a result that should set off alarm bells in Dean Skelos plush offices, have re-elect numbers below 50%.

Odious wingnut Serph Maltese is tied at 42% of the vote with challenger Joe Addabbo in SD-15 (Queens), with 16% undecided; withered incumbent Caesar Trunzo (SD-3, Suffolk) leads challenger Brian X. Foley, 46% to 40%, with 14% undecided; while Rochester incumbent Joe Robach (SD-56) leads challenger and former Senator Rick Dollinger, 49% to 38%, with 13% undecided.

In Erie County's SD-61, an open seat, Democrat Joe Mesi barely edges out republican Michael Ranzenhofer, 40% to 38%, with a very large number of undecideds at 22%.

In a Democratic year like 2008, republican incumbents polling under 50% have a big fat target tattooed on their foreheads. To be considered safe, Maltese, Robach and Trunzo would need to be polling at about 57%, to compensate for the expected Democratic surge in November, a surge that is going to be enhanced by a superior Democratic/WFP ground game. In short, Maltese is polling about 15% below where he needs to be, Trunzo, 11%, and Robach, 8%. Unless they can make up that gap - and the lavish spending by the SRCC, $879,465 on Maltese, $330,330 on Trunzo, $111,816 on Robach, indicates that money isn't going to do it - these three will not be in the Senate in the next session.

Some caveats, as always, apply. As we pointed out after the ridiculous recent Siena poll that showed only a five-point gap between Obama and McCain, Siena annoyingly does not push leaners, which is problematic at this stage in the cycle. The sample sizes for all of these polls are relatively small, about 400 respondents for every poll, resulting in a MoE around 4.7% to 4.9%. Some of the cross-tabs strike me as dubious; for example, in SD-3 (.pdf), Democrat Brian Foley attracts only 46% of the non-white vote, while Trunzo is supported for re-election by 31% of non-whites and, startlingly, by 46% of young voters. Most troublingly, the cross-tabs don't provide data on the composition of the sample by race, gender, or age.

In short, while the Siena results give Democrats cause for optimism, nothing is cast in stone in terms of outcome; except, of course, for the re-elections of Senators Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine.