For goodness sakes, people, can you just calm down for a minute?

Thank you, that's much better.

Data is not the plural of anecdote, but if my personal communications are any indication, some Democrats are doing what we do best, stoking on their own anxiety, seeing an Obama defeat approaching in November. Various data snippets are proffered to support the indulgence of that most natural Democratic emotional state, sheer, unvarnished panic.

The new Siena poll, for example, shows a close race in New York, with Obama leading McCain by only five points. Man the lifeboats.

Meanwhile, disgusting rightwingers, sensing a possible stay of execution, have begun crowing; Tony Blankley, wretched piece of refuse that he is, for example, can barely contain his glee that his proxy lease on criminal governance may be extended.

In short, we're probably at the most difficult point in the campaign for Barack Obama, after that pastor episode, that is. So, where are we?

The Field, Al Giordano's brilliant blog, isn't panicked. They note, entirely correctly, that at this low point in the campaign, Obama still commands 268 electoral votes to John McCain's 270.

And I'll tell you that this is a great map, an adrenaline producing map, a map to embrace and cherish and remember for a lifetime if you're out there doing the door-to-door and phone-to-phone and data-entry and other work, registering, persuading and identifying voters, because it means that the 2008 presidential election is in your hands.

If Obama holds onto the blue states on this map (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire and Maine's Second Congressional District being the most volatile "blue" zones in need of a firewall; Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, Iowa and Minnesota being places not to take for granted), and flips a single other state, Obama wins.

Forecasting future events is a risky business, but this is probably the high point of John McCain's campaign. He hasn't run this well since Obama clinched the nomination. We're already seeing erosion in his standing in the national polls, some of which show a slight lead for him, some a tie, some a slight lead for Obama. Experience suggests this erosion will trickle down to the state polling data in the next ten days or so.

This morning, for example, McCain said of the Wall Street meltdown:

"Our economy, I believe, still, the fundamentals of our economy are strong, but these are very, very difficult times, so I promise you: We will never put America in this position again. We will clean up Wall Street," McCain said.

Just taste that. The guy who doesn't know how many houses he owns thinks everything is rosy. Sure, that'll work.