The reactions to the transit strike are, so far, falling along very predictable lines. The Daily News is calling for union leaders to be jailed and the TWU to be fined into bankruptcy. The New York Post does some big-picture editorializing about public-sector pensions in general. The Drum Major Institute points the finger at the governor. The New York Times, as always, takes a more Olympian view of current events by tracing the historical development of the TWU and its impact on the decision to strike. The prickly pachyderms over at Urban Elephants, meanwhile, wax lyrical about the rule of law.

New Yorkers, as a rule, are friendly towards unions and the general idea behind them: that employees have the right to bargain with their employers collectively. At the same time, we get very irritated indeed if our routines are adversely affected over a period of time for reasons we do not see as justified. This strike, coming as it does in bone-chilling cold and the height of the holiday shopping season, will require that the union aggressively communicate its goals and grievances, or risk a rapid loss of support from the affected public. The MTA, as seems clear especially from the hostile editorial in the Daily News, is portraying itself as a victim of extortion. Both sides are presenting the contract offer of the other as unreasonable.

On the face of it, the MTA's offer does not seem all too ungenerous, since it contains a total pay raise over three years of 10.5%, which does seem slightly more realistic than the union's initial demand of an 8% raise in each of three years. The real sticking points for the union, however, are buried further down in the contract, with the MTA's demands that these raises be conditional on new contributions to pension plans and health care costs, which would essentially amount to a pay freeze. That, in turn, does not look generous at all.

One thing seems clear: the patience of the riding public, given the temperatures, will be exhausted quickly. If we come to believe that our pain is being used as a bargaining chip by either side, there will be a fast and furious backlash. Both the TWU and the MTA will need to resist any desire to posture; but given the personalities of both Roger Toussaint and Peter Kalikow, it seems only a matter of time before one or the other makes a horrendous gaffe and sees his support vanish.

Who will it be? Stay tuned.