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Giuliani still wiping floor with Hillary
There's a new Quinnipiac Poll out, and it shows what these polls always show: Rudy Giuliani wipes the floor with Hillary Clinton.
Giuliani Leads Clinton In Two Of Three Swing States, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; FLORIDA: Giuliani Over Clinton 47 - 42; Clinton-McCain Tied at 44 - 44; OHIO: Clinton 44 to Giuliani 43; Clinton tops McCain 45 - 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Giuliani Tops Clinton 51 - 40; McCain Up 47 - 41
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is the early favorite over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton or Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voter opinion in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.
Interestingly, the Democrat that does best against the republican field is, also as always, John Edwards. Funny how these things happen.
I'm not a Hillary supporter
But I'd be cautious about reading too much into all these early polls. If elections were decided by polls taken a few months after the midterms, Carter would have beaten Reagan, Joe Leiberman would have been the '04 Democratic nominee, etc etc.
True Hillary doesn't exactly have anywhere to go with name recognition. But Giuliani is arguably a house of cards: any competent political organization ought to be able to tear him to pieces. He may yet survive, but he's got a serious trial by fire coming between these polls and the casting of any ballots.
Plus...
I hear there may be some photos of him that would be a, shall we say, DRAG on his popularity among some Conservatives...
Don't underestimate Giuliani
...he could do this. I think he's the strongest in their field, and if he gets himself a wingnut running mate like Brownback, he'd be very formidable.
Don't get me wrong
I absolutely don't underestimate him.
But he hasn't been tested yet, either.
Did anyone go see Newt Gingrich debate Mario Cuomo?
Gingrich alluded to running several times, and got a lot of applause from a NY crowd. It was a little surreal, and to be honest, scary. I think he's going to run, and if he does I could see him cleaning up against the other repubs. Look for him to keep a low profile until September or November, and then go all out, stealing campaign people from the lower tiered candidates, and getting tons of money from conservatives.
He scares me a lot more than any other republican.
I was there
Blogged about it here.
Newt has great political skills, but I have a hard time seeing him getting elected president, just b/c of his associations with the unpopular GOP Congress of the mid-late 90s.
You're right about his strategy, though - he's building organization and keeping his name in the public eye, but at the same time keeping up plausible deniability about whether he's really going to run. He's biding his time - meanwhile, it's a non-campaign campaign.
the debate
I think you hit the main point right on the head. Newt clearly won the debate, even though Cuomo had better ideas. This is because the way he talks is almost intoxicating. It has a liberal democrat like me feeling like we should defend him. Scary indeed.
I for one, can't think of anything more terrifying/interesting than a Hillary-Gingrich matchup. Two completely diffent styles, with a a lot of nasty history between the two. Liberals would hate it, and conservatives would love it.