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Fizzle at the grassroots

There are some ironies in the petition signature filings that took place across the state recently. Take the Democratic primary in the Third Senatorial District, for example.

On July 3, third-time contestant Jimmy Dahroug emailed his list with this message:

We've got more than the 1,000 signatures required for our place on the ballot. But we need as big a "cushion" of signatures as possible to stop any potential challenges from Brian Foley.

Jimmy Dahroug filed 1,400 signatures. Brian Foley, the Brookhaven Supervisor who got into the race on the day of the Suffolk County Democratic Convention, arguing that he was more electable against republican Caesar Trunzo (R-FL), collected 3,200. The number of valid signatures required to get on the ballot is 1,000. By comparison, SD-25 challenger Dan Squadron filed 8,000 signatures.

Now, if you've been running since 2003, and the grassroots angle is one you play very heavily in your promotion to voters, isn't it at least somewhat startling that you're getting creamed more than two to one on a core metric of grassroots support by someone who's only been running for a few weeks, as opposed to five years?

Bouldin's picture

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Gothanonymous Reader's picture

It doesn't mean anything...

Did you ever think that the reason why Foley got so many signatures is because he has a massive HIRED staff who can do the legwork for him. I am extremely active in the district and have not encountered one person who was approached by Brian Foley. It's also well known that he had his minions setup camp at numerous grocery store parking lots this past Sunday to collect signatures.

Jimmy actually MET and SPOKE with the people of the district. This is what true grassroots campaigning is about.

mole333's picture

Heh

Interestingly, this puts my friend's efforts into perspective. Without hiring anyone, Devin Cohen collected 5000 signatures for his judicial race, with the help of four local Democratic clubs. He also only needed 1000. A lot of those signatures involved significant face time with voters either by Devin or people who know him personally. So, while Dahroug and Foley debate about whether the small number of face-to-face signatures or the large number of bought signatures is more significant, Devin beats them both put together while spending almost no money.

Does this make Devin the king of the grassroots approach?

I will add that number of signatures gathered in no way means votes in the end. If it indicates the strength of a ground game, then by all means it is significant IF that ground game can be carried through to the election. That is the key for ANY of these candidates. Establish your ground game and keep it well oiled at the lowest cost possible until voting day.

Carroll's picture

Sad

1400 signatures is pitiful. I would not be shocked if he is kicked off the ballot. Most campaigns want to come in 2-3 times over the necessary limit; and that is consider the bare minimum. Chris Owens 06 campaign got 13,000 signatures, without a single payed petitioned. The person who put that together must have been one smart guy. If I were Jimmy I would be real worried, it is easy to invalidate 400 signatures.

I wonder how much petitioning Jimmy was actually doing?! Even if your campaign was doing all door to door signatures(which they weren't), and only two people go out a night(really sad if true), and they each get 30 signatures a night(not very hard to do), and they go out 30 nights of 45 day period(again not very hard to do) that would equal 1800 signatures. Now lets be real of those 1400 I bet at least 1/3 are from some form of street petitioning. And if you can't get at least two people to go out a night for you, your campaign is sunk. C'mon if he can't even get his mom and dad enthused about volunteering what type of shot does he have.

bye bye jimmy

bc

Gothanonymous Reader's picture

If you think 1400 signatures

If you think 1400 signatures is pitiful, The "Recchia-Brook-Krasny-Delia Shack" Team of the Shorefront Democratic Club only got 1500 signatures. How many of those are good or not good, will be challenged. Alec and friends are really vulnerable. It's about time they get knocked out of the box. This group are really a bunch of BUMS.

ROSALIE907's picture

Shorefront

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't they even have petitions printed with McMahon's name on them.
Also, do you know how Jeannie May did?

By the way, there was a terrible mistake counting McMahon's signatures, instead of 11,000 he only has about 8,300.

Gothanonymous Reader's picture

The committepeople were

The committepeople were given the option of carrying for Foley, Dahroug or Montano. Most carried for Foley, a couple for Dahroug, and none for Montano.

In the same area, Dem Waldo Cabrera filed almost 1,000 signatures to challenge the 6th AD incumbent with no help whatsoever from the party. His entirely grassroots operation has the hacks up in arms.

Dan Jacoby's picture

The reason for the difference...

... is that every one of Dahroug's signatures was gathered by a trained petitioner from a registered Democrat in the district, going door-to-door, while many (most? all?) of Foley's signatures were gathered by semi-trained hired help at shopping centers and street corners, often on the outskirts of the district.

That means that Dahroug's petitions are solid, while Foley's are questionable.

Bouldin's picture

Yeah, but...

...if Jimmy's petitioners are so incredibly awesome, why were they outperformed two to one by the other team?

Sorry, that doesn't make sense as an argument. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets knocked off the ballot, frankly.

Dan Jacoby's picture

Two to one ain't nothin'

1. Foley has had help from the state committee (they've hired people to work on his campaign). It stinks, but there it is. So they certainly had a lot more people out there.

2. In my experience, gathering signatures at a street corner or shopping center results in three to five times the number of signatures per unit time as going door to door.

Adding up all the facts, it's clear that Brian Foley does not have the kind of support, the kind of message, and the kind of work ethic that can successfully challenge Caesar Trunzo -- unless it's a lot easier than we think to win this race. Either way, Dahroug is the better candidate. If Foley needs what he lacks, we need Dahroug; if Foley's lack is irrelevant, then anyone can win and Dahroug, being a true progressive, should be the nominee.

Bouldin's picture

You know...

...I find your comment to be awash in irony. We have two candidates, one of whom has significantly outperformed the other. But that over-performance is, to some, a liability, while a result that may get its beneficiary knocked off the ballot is a triumph?

Maybe we're operating in two different universes here, but I'm looking at Jimmy's results and seeing some major liabilities. maybe that's a failure of enlightened consciousness, no question, but to me, he got his ass kicked. And all I'm seeing here are excuses for why that doesn't mean what it says.

Color me unconvinced, Dan.

Gatemouth's picture

This is getting to be a habit

At the risk of setting Bouldin off on one of his tirades, he again appears to be right on the money. 1,450 in a race where you need 1,000 (as opposed to 1,500 in a race you need 500) is not an encouraging number. Neither is the number of subscribing witnesses.

I don't know the Harrison/McMahon numbers, but even if they are 2 to 1, or worse, it seems pretty certain that thay are strong enough to show a credible volunteer base (and if there weren't, you know I'd say so). And a credible volunteer base makes a compelling argument that one can win a marginal seat in the fall. By that measure, which was supposed to be Dahroug's ace in the hole, Dahroug dissapoints.

Let's not overstate this--petitions prove some things, but, as Mole has pointed out concerning Chris Owens, they are not necessarily an accurate guage of who will win. And, yes, 100 door to door signatures, properly collected, may be better than a ton of street crap.

But if the other guy has the money, and the party, you better be able to do better than 15 subscribing witness and less than 1.5 times the required # of sigs.

mole333's picture

Have to say...

I have to say I find both candidate's numbers disappointing. Which is why I brought up Devin. If Devin, also needing only 1000 signatures, can get 5000, pretty much ALL of them of the high quality, door to door variety, for a judicial race, you really would think BOTH Dahroug and Foley could do similarly well. I suspect even Dahroug has more money on hand than Devin, let alone Foley.

I take this to mean three things. First off, it may well be easier to collect signatures in Brooklyn than up in Suffolk. Second, maybe the petitioning pissing contest and challenges are more important to people here than out there. And/or third, neither Foley nor Dahroug is as effective as Devin at getting things done at low cost.

Anyone got Trunzo's numbers, out of curiousity?

Gatemouth's picture

Caesar Fiddled while Islip burned out

Apparently, Trunzo, as Islip Town Chair, barely qualified his own local slate, and it took Brookhaven to bail out his Senate petition.

mole333's picture

Wow

So we have three weak candidates (as measured by this admittedly really inacurate, insider's scale) between the two parties? Sheesh. Why doesn't Yassky move out there. Sounds like he'd give 'em all a run for their money ; -)

Gatemouth's picture

Slight Modification

Good idea, but Yassky currently has a job; why not Squadron?

Actually, it's been thought of before, by the Republicans. I believe the last Republican candidate for Brookhaven Supervisor was a former State Senator from Brooklyn (Neanderthal Bobby DiCarlo, who apparently got tired of his knuckles craping on the City sidewalks)

Gothanonymous Reader's picture

Trunzo and Foely have the

Trunzo and Foely have the same number of signatures. Dahroug has less than half that amount.

Dahroug is an ugly, unlikable little prick with a totally unwarranted superior attitude, a lack of acumen and no work ethic. His petitioners are mostly from the city. Foley is former pretty boy of limited brainpower and zero vision who inherited his political cachet and his first political job from his father. His petitions were carried 50/50 by committeepeople and DSCC/WFP recruits. In September I plan to hold my nose and vote for Dahroug.

In November, I will vote for Trunzo to keep member item money flowing into my district.

Dan Jacoby's picture

You'll lose your member items

With the tide turning (not to mention Tom Golisano's money being brought in), it is now pretty obvious that the Democrats will control the state Senate next year. That being the case, Republicans will find their member items drastically reduced. Since this seems to be your primary reason for your vote in the general elections, you might consider continuing to hold your nose.

sidnora's picture

Don't be shy, now

Tell us how you really feel.

Gothanonymous Reader's picture

Jimmy's a real long shot now

What this means is that Brian Foley starts with approx. 1,400 more votes in the bank than Jimmy. If that is you conclude that most people who sign petitions for that candidate actually intend to vote for that candidate. This is an awfully large gap to overcome. Jimmy's a real longshot now.

mole333's picture

Doesn't translates well to votes

A sign on a piece of paper doesn't really translate well to votes, particularly if gathered by hired hands with little connection to the area. It translates better if the signatures were gathered face to face, giving the candidate or his/her proxy a chance to talk to the voters. But even then, I have known people who kicked ass petitioning then lost the election.

That said, neither Foley nor Dahroug nor Trunzo did a petitioning job that impresses us New Yawk City Denizens. But I always figure the signature race is more of a pissing contest as long as you qualify and have enough GOOD sigs to STAY on the ballot if challenged. Some quesiton if Dahroug has that, but if he was super careful, he could be just fine. It is possible to keep track of each and every signature to make sure they are valid. If that was done, he's safe and they all start with a poor, but adequate, showing.

Dan Jacoby's picture

Where's Montano?

Ricardo Montano was also supposed to be running in this district; I wonder what happened to him.

mole333's picture

Endorsed Dahroug

Gothanonymous Reader's picture

Montano

Montano couldn't get anyone to sign he petition so he dropped out and endorsed Dahroug. That endorsement cost Dahroug signatures.

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Michael Bouldin is a consultant to the NY DSCC on web strategy and netroots stuff. Rock Hackshaw consults with Congressman Ed Towns' re-election campaign. Liza Sabater has recently done work on Norman Siegel's campaign for Public Advocate. Mole333 is a member of the board of IND and a member of the Brooklyn Democratic Committee.

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