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Democracy Corps Poll: Republicans crumbling
James Carville has his occasional uses, including his polling firm, Democracy Corps. Take their results with a smallish grain of salt - their results are usually very friendly to Democrats - but their newest battleground poll is worth checking out.
This latest Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of the competitive battleground districts reveals an intensely angry electorate, even more sour on Republicans who have not distanced themselves enough from Bush and are now at risk even at the edge of the current map of competitive congressional seats. Democratic candidates are now ahead by 4 points in the 40 most vulnerable Republican seats, even in the bottom tier. A near majority of 48 percent in these Republican seats say they “can’t vote to re-elect” their Republican incumbent, while Democrats are ahead in the open seats.
When Democracy Corps last surveyed these Republican-held Congressional seats in July,>[1] the Republicans had made gains, incumbents had protected themselves and we thought the battleground would contract to fewer seats. We were wrong: the opposite has happened. Increased anger about the country and a sharper focus on the economy has damaged Republican incumbents and put even more Republican seats in jeopardy. Democrats are in a position to take half of these seats or more and clearly the battleground extends beyond these 40 districts.
They don't break the results down by Congressional District - and probably shouldn't, considering the sample size and the margin of error a break-out would produce - but if you're interested in discomfiting some of our endangered republican Congressmen, this poll is good news.




Other polls
Congression Quarterly and the Cook Political Report seem to show about a 10 seat gain for Democrats in the House. The Rothenberg Report is more conservative, showing about a 5 seat gain. The trend in these polls, however, has been toward Democrats. Shifts in the race ratings tend to be toward the blue end. Over the next month, it's possible to see a 15-20 seat pickup being predicted, and actual results going as high as 25.
On the Senate side, another six-seat pickup is probably most likely at this point (Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, and either North Carolina or Mississippi being the six). Again, that number could rise as election day approaches. If Dems get both NC and MS, then add Oregon, Minnesota and Maine to the mix, a ten-seat gain is possible. I believe that would be the largest single-election shift since Republicans picked up 12 seats in 1980.
Then there's the White House...