The Science of Negative Results
While on vacation in California, I was having a discussion with my wife (an atmospheric scientist), and a friend (an archaeologist). I am a Developmental Geneticist. So we were three scientists from three very disparate fields. I have been a scientist for 20 years. My wife for much shorter time and my friend for much, much longer. So we come at it from different chronological perspectives.
And one thing we each have encountered is the huge lack in science of the reporting of negative results. There is a perception in science that one must prove your hypothesis correct or it is not worth reporting. So when someone posits a hypothesis and DISPROVES it (which is common and healthy in science) they cannot publish it until it can be paired with related positive data. That often doesn't happen for years and sometimes is never published if the work goes in a different direction. This, of course, leads to many people repeating the same negative data over and over because they are unaware that it has already been disproven already by many other researchers.
This can be quite a waste of time and resources. read more »
Monty Python: "Gone"
A friend of mine emails over this Monty Python YouTube, claiming it could just as soon be treated as commentary on the Democrats' anguish over losong their Senate majority. I think that's a little unfair, what with them winning the actual election and all that, but the sketch is nothing short of brilliant. Take a look.
WFP's Mayoral Forum tonight.
At the risk of irritating my friend Mole and interrupting his jihad against the Working Families Party, let me point you towards the party's Mayoral forum tonight. All three major-party contenders have confirmed attendance.
The Forum begins at 5:30 today, and you can watch it either here or on WFP's web site, here. The lineup per Liz is Mayor Bloomberg at 6 PM, Councilman Avella at 6:25, and Comptroller Bill Thompson at 7:25. read more »
WFP Kisses Bloomberg's Ass
WFP some time back made a whole lot of noise about opposing Bloomberg's Putsch. Then they quickly shut up about it. Maybe they quickly realized they could make more money joining Bloomberg's trained surrender monkeys than standing up for working families.
Earlier when someone told me Bloomberg was trying to buy the WFP endorsement I said that although WFP loves to be bought, I think even they will be beyond Bloomberg's money. Seems I was wrong. WFP first kissed corrupt Party Boss Vito Lopez's ass and now are puckering up for Bloomberg's posterior. Got this forwarded to me from several sources, but it was picked up by No Power Grab before I saw it: read more »
Marist: New Yorkers hate the Senate
The new Marist Poll came out today - results here - and the numbers are devastating. There's no upside here for anyone. Democrats and republicans are damaging the very fabric of government.
Who's to blame?
When it comes to pointing a finger at who’s to blame for the current Senate fiasco, voters divide. 38% say it’s the Democrats while 39% put the onus on the Republicans. 23% are unsure. Not surprisingly, majorities within both the Democratic and Republican parties blame their rival party. Non-enrolled voters divide. Breaking down the numbers by region, a plurality of voters in New York City — 47% — blames the Republicans. A plurality in the suburbs — 46% — points a finger at the Democrats. Upstate voters divide with 40% blaming the Republicans and 37% blaming the Democrats.
How is the Senate performing?
65% of New York State registered voters say the job the New York State Senate in Albany is doing is a poor one. Just 11% of the state’s electorate says the legislative body is doing either an excellent or good job. And, while Democrats and Republicans may not agree about their overall political ideas, they do agree that the Senate’s performance is shoddy. 64% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans view the Senate’s performance as poor. 67% of non-enrolled voters agree.
Long-term effects:
Looking down the road, 61% of the New York State electorate believes the Senate will be less effective in the future as a result of the current battle in the chamber. 31%, however, believe the body will be more effective. 61% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans view the impact on the Senate’s future actions as negative while 66% of non-enrolled voters concur.
The Senators need to wake up and realize that at this point, it's not about control, power or their member items anymore. It's about the institutions of the state and the legislative body they serve in.
Update: a reader emails and points out another key data point: A whopping 84% of registered voters report that, from what they have heard, the situation is nothing more than a political power play. In fact, just 12% view the wrangling as a serious effort to bring reform to Albany. Considering that the "Bipartisan reform coalition" or whatever the Espadaites are calling themselves these days derive their sole justification for overturning an election from claims to reform, that's devastating. read more »





